x
The impeachment process should not be judged on whether it uses Trump. There is no alternative in the service of democracy.
Trump has plunged the Democrats into a dilemma - now it's far more than the next election.
Indeed, Donald Trump's behavior has left the Democrats in a dilemma with no options for action: no matter how it ends, Trump emerges as the winner. The impeachment procedure is politically very risky for the Democrats. A sobering insight. Nonetheless, the Democrats have no alternative: only if they can prove that the democratic system and its principles and institutions work will they have the chance to restore confidence in democracy and its representatives despite a highly polarized environment.
Gordon Sondland, US Ambassador to the European Union, heavily burdened Donald Trump and his closest confidante in the course of his survey. But that doesn't change the fact that the impeachment process is still very likely to fail. Should there be a final vote in the Senate, it is not expected that 20 Republican senators will speak out against Trump. But this would be necessary to achieve the necessary two-thirds majority. But the Republicans are almost entirely behind Trump.
No matter at what point the process ultimately fails - Trump will draw capital from it for the upcoming election campaign. He will present himself as a victim of a witch hunt. If Trump can use this narrative for himself and win the presidential election next year, many Democrats will regret the impeachment process.
Not initiating impeachment proceedings was simply no longer an option. It would have meant tolerating Trump's behavior.
And yet - initiating impeachment proceedings was simply no longer an option. It would have meant tolerating Trump's behavior, both his alleged request for consideration in return for partners like Ukraine, and his alleged intimidation of own employees and diplomats like Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. The waiver of impeachment proceedings would have created further tensions within the Democratic Party, as some MPs have long accused their moderate colleagues of not acting vigorously against Trump.
It had taken a long time for this majority to be established in the ranks of the Democrats. In the wake of the Russia affair and the Mueller report, some democratic MPs have been demanding impeachment from Trump since the beginning of the presidency. However, most of the Democrats had refused to do so - given the Republican majority in the Senate, a trial would have been tantamount to political suicide. Only the Ukraine affair changed this assessment fundamentally.
Why is impeachment suddenly the better option, although nothing has changed in the chances of success in the Senate vote?
The impeachment process is a political process. It is less a matter of convincing MPs than of convincing the public of the President's guilt.
An obvious explanation would be the changed facts. Unlike the Russia affair, the burden of proof seems heavier this time and Trump's misconduct is clearer. However, the facts alone should not have played a role: the impeachment procedure is a political procedure. Sufficient evidence must first be created, but then it is less about convincing the MPs than the public of the President's guilt. After all, which MPs would vote for impeachment if their voters punished them for it in the next election?
Many Republicans are likely to ask themselves these questions, not least given the fact that facts have never been questioned as widely by the US public as they are now. Trump himself made a huge contribution to this. Instead of facts, there is a struggle for sovereignty of interpretation, be it in terms of visitor numbers (inauguration), key economic data (foreign trade balance sheet) or diplomatic talks (Ukraine affair).
Accordingly, the facts of the Ukraine affair are not expected to be sufficient to make it politically attractive for at least 20 Republican senators to deviate from the party line and stand up to Trump. Current surveys show a clear change in public opinion as the Ukraine affair becomes known. However, they continue to depict the opposing parties: before the Ukraine affair, only around 36 percent of those questioned spoke out in favor of and around 54 percent against impeachment proceedings, with the Ukraine affair beginning, an average of around 51 percent are in favor and around 43 Percent against.
The Democrats must therefore win the battle for sovereignty over interpretation. They hope for success by presenting themselves as defenders of the constitutional separation of powers.
A look at history shows that the republicans also held united for a long time to their president in the impeachment proceedings against Richard Nixon. The tide turned when support for Nixon began to decline. Only when they were sure not to risk reelection were they ready to stand against their president. However, none of this is currently visible to the Republicans.
The Democrats must therefore win the battle for sovereignty over interpretation. They hope for success by presenting themselves as defenders of the constitutional separation of powers. Not only does Nancy Pelosi, spokeswoman for the House, emphasize that the Democrats are not pursuing the impeachment process out of party political interest, but in the national interest of the United States: committed to the Constitution, Congress must assume its democratic role and control the executive in the event of possible violations.
In this way, they could limit behavior that is also considered morally questionable by many Republican voters. The Democrats are betting on being able to convince the electorate in the course of the public hearings, so that Republican MPs are finally ready to deviate from Trump's line.
The Democrats must credibly assure that their struggle with Trump is not about party politics, but about separation of powers, democratic institutions and national interests.
But regardless of the outcome of the survey and the procedure, there is much more to it than the next elections. The Democratic Party is facing increasing polarization in US society and growing dissatisfaction with the political 'establishment'. In the fight against widespread doubts about facts, principles of the rule of law and democratic ideas, it is important to show that MEPs take democratic processes seriously and that they work.
The impeachment process gives the Democrats the chance to provide this evidence. To do this, they have to assure credibly that their struggle with Trump is not about party politics, but about the constitutional protection of the separation of powers, democratic institutions and national interests. What would be better proof of this than an impeachment process on behalf of the nation that could jeopardize your own re-election and a potential democratic presidency?
How consciously the Democrats made this consideration is irrelevant. Perhaps the impeachment process can ultimately be successful - not against Trump, but in the fight against the increasing polarization of American society. After all, what could help better against populists than the confident behavior of elected representatives in terms of basic democratic values? It is obvious that the process will not be child's play. But perhaps it will be possible to open up new political options for action. An idealistic hope, of course. But a serving of courageous idealism really can't hurt in times of polarization and populism.
