Many forecasts made by management in December 2021 were overtaken by geopolitical and macroeconomic developments by mid-2022 at the latest. Internal disruptions were often added to this. This is shown by an evaluation of ad-hoc reports published by 90 percent of all companies in the Prime Standard on EQS News. 

Ad-hoc notifications are notifications to investors about company developments that affect the stock market price. They are published, for example, when a company fills a new board position or places a new bond. Or when profits are higher or lower than expected. The following comparison shows how much the profit prospects clouded over in the war year 2022: in 2021 there was one report of downward adjustments and twelve of upward adjustments. Last year, however, DAX companies published 14 profit warnings - and only four forecast increases.

Also read: What the gloomy forecasts mean for investors

Big losses at Adidas

The sporting goods manufacturer Adidas had to correct itself a whopping three times within a year. In China, the company's largest growth market, customers stayed away because of the lockdowns. Consumer sentiment was also poor in Western countries. The group also separated from Kanye West as a partner in the course of the year after various scandals. 

This mixture of negative developments caused the first alarm bells to ring as early as May: With the specified profit range of 1.8 to 1.9 billion euros, only the lower end is achievable, it was said. In July, the forecast fell to 1.3 billion, then to 0.5 billion in October. This drop in profits of more than 70 percent was also clearly reflected in the share price.

Other consumer goods manufacturers also had to issue profit warnings. The Dax group Henkel updated its forecast in April and downgraded the EBIT margin, i.e. the ratio of earnings before taxes and interest to sales generated, from an average of 12.5 to 10 percent.

The reluctance of consumers did not spare the fashion segment either. Zalando reduced the forecast lower revenue growth limit from initially twelve to zero percent. The forecast for profits before taxes and interest fell by almost 60 percent, from at least 430 million to 180 million euros. The magnitude of this correction surprised even analysts. Things weren't going well at the meal kit provider HelloFresh either. There was a profit warning in July, and in September the Dax newcomer flew out of the leading index after heavy price losses.

Many sectors are hit by losses

In the energy sector, Siemens and Siemens Energy were impacted by losses recorded by subsidiary Gamesa. In the healthcare sector,   bad news from the USA caught up with Fresenius SE and Fresenius Medical Care . There, the Fresenius subsidiary , which specializes in dialysis, is struggling with increased costs and a lack of nursing staff. At the end of October, the company announced that it was expecting a drop in consolidated profit of up to 25 percent - significantly more than previously assumed.

The plastics group Covestro also had to cut back on profit expectations . Only in May and then again in July did the company reduce its Ebitda forecast by a good 30 percent, from at least 2,500 million to 1,700 million euros. This week, Covestro then announced the preliminary Ebitda for 2022: At 1.610 million euros, it is once again below the most recent correction.

The auto industry got off relatively lightly. Volkswagen only issued a general profit warning in April without making any specific forecast cuts. At the automotive supplier Continental , the increased costs for raw materials and energy pushed the margin from an average of 6.0 to 5.2 percent and made a profit warning necessary.

Four winners

But things didn't go badly for all Dax companies. Four companies were able to increase their profits despite war and crises. This included the world's largest chemical supplier, Brenntag , which raised its profit forecast by 20 percent in June after two quarters of strong sales. In addition, the energy supplier RWE benefited from the higher generation margins due to the energy bottlenecks and increased the forecast net result from an average of 1.5 billion to 2.35 billion euros. The strong first quarters also prompted  Daimler Trucks and biotechnology supplier Qiagen  to revise their earnings forecasts upwards.

The Prime Standard, the crème de la crème of listed companies, is shrinking. At the end of last year, 299 companies belonged to this stock market segment. At the peak in 2013, there were still 325.