What happens if Trump loses

How will Trump's followers behave in the event of an election defeat in November? The cult around his person does not suggest anything good.

Either he wins or it was electoral fraud, it's easy.

Although President Trump continues to dominate the news, it is very difficult for him to convince the public of anything. He is handing out to governors who have imposed severe lockdowns on the coronavirus pandemic, but these governors are now much more popular than he is. It urges all of us to go back to our normal economic and social lives, but surveys show that most Americans are still cautious and are in no hurry to go out and share their droplets with others. He shouts that postal voting is fraud, but more and more states - including many republican ones - are improving access to postal voting.

We know what's next: "But what about its base?" These loyal Trump fans - who watch Fox News with religious dedication, proudly wear their Make America Great Again clothes, go to his events and everything believe what he says? Nothing will diminish your passionate support for him, right? That is undoubtedly true. And it raises a question: what will these people do if Trump loses in November? What happens to a cult of people when the person is elected from office by the voters?

There is no recent precedent that could help us answer. Presidents who are honored like Trump in his own party tend to rule two terms and then honorably resign with high approval ratings. And those who are not reelected (which has only happened to George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford in the past hundred years) didn't have many admirers who complained of their defeat.

The typical suffering of the supporters of inferior candidates - denial, anger and then acceptance - could not work for Trump's supporters because he told them exactly how they should understand the world in which we all live: he didn't just have them Image of institutional corruption, but also the unconditional rejection of norms, rules and laws as well as the basic idea that every undesirable result is illegitimate by definition.

A good example of this is Trump's new obsession with postal voting. In fact, everything indicates that absentee election fraud is extremely rare and, in general, neither Democrats nor Republicans benefit from postal elections. But Trump continues to claim that an election in which more votes are sent by letter than ever before can only be fraudulent, and is already predicting "the greatest rigged election in history".

Presidents who are honored like Trump in his own party tend to rule two terms and then honorably resign with high approval ratings.

So let's imagine it is Wednesday, November 4th: Joe Biden has won the election and declares himself the winner. The real diehard Trumpists - maybe between ten and twenty percent of the population - are not only disappointed but also angry. Since Biden won, they know he stole the election. They will see this not only as the most unfair moment in history, but as a direct threat to themselves - because they believe that if the Democrats came to power, they would suppress them in all possible ways.

Most Trump voters who were and will continue to be Republicans before taking office will soon lose their anger. Many of their representatives will then say that they have never liked Trump anyway and are trying to distance themselves from his failure, determine the future course of the Republican Party and secure a place in the process.

But the Trumpists won't find a role for themselves in this process. They never had a common political program that could easily be served by another politician. Certainly there was a lot they wanted (mostly on immigration issues), but they won't take hours on the streets to claim less taxes for the rich or to cut environmental protection measures. It was Trump they loved - in all of their gross, hateful glory. No future election campaigns, no political conflicts will give them the same feeling that they got from him. They could put their energy into the anti-biden movement, a kind of new edition of the tea party. But would they really satisfy that after experiencing the ecstatic glory of Trumpism?

They have been convinced that the system is fundamentally corrupt, so there is no reform program that they can support. There is no conceivable set of rules that could be implemented to design the system the way you want it. It is corrupt and will always be so, they are convinced - so the only acceptable state is that someone with Trump's royal power temporarily takes control of the corrupt state affairs and uses them for his own purposes. And when he is gone, the system will be the same as before.

So if you're a Trumpist, but Trump has permanently withdrawn to Mar-a-Lago, why should you be politically involved in the traditional way? Should you clean the door for a pale Trump copy - not to mention guys like Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley who could apply for the presidency in 2024? Why should you choose at all?

Trumpism, on the other hand, is only about Trump, and none of it will be left without him.

This could be the biggest threat to the Republican Party after Trump: its members could choose to leave this terrible time behind, promote moderate politicians, and set up a program that appeals to more people than its shrinking base. But if they do, many of their voters will just jump out because they won't find anything to support the Republicans.

We should also be prepared for the fact that violence could break out after the election: for years, if you hear from Trump and others, you have been nodding your head that the White Man is being attacked by dark powers that want to destroy everything you believe in, and if Trump is defeated, you might think that politics is no longer a sensible way to save the country and the only alternative is a violent revolution. If Trump, as a private citizen, tweets all of his bitterness into the world while the Democrats triumphantly take power, we could see more mass shootings and attempts to start a civil war.

Maybe we're lucky and it doesn't get that far. And Trump may have changed the Republican Party to follow in his footsteps: If a QAnon conspiracy theorist wins the party nomination for a U.S. Senate seat in Oregon, you're tempted to think the GOP is so off track that it even does Trump's defeat may not be enough to bring her back to reason.

But especially if after the November election the Democrats get not only control of the White House, but also control of the Senate, and victories in the states, the GOP elite will be very motivated to renounce Trumpism in order to become one to remain America capable of a majority. For the followers of the Trump sect, however, this will be proof that participation is not worthwhile.

Since Trump is so unique, it is likely that he will leave his fans disappointed once. Followers of Ronald Reagan or Barack Obama may not have found anyone as charismatic as their idols, but both presidents shared a vision of progress that they have left behind that others have been able to pick up on. Trumpism, on the other hand, is only about Trump, and none of it will be left without him. We can't say for sure what his superfans in the world will do after him, but his party should definitely be very worried.