Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Coronavirus

The economic impact on the stock markets in China will only be delayed because securities trading is paused throughout the Middle Kingdom on the occasion of the Chinese New Year celebrations from January 24th to 30th.

Initial estimates suggest the epidemic could cut the country's economic growth by up to 1.2 percent in 2020. Last year, the economy had grown at only 6.2 percent, the lowest rate in 29 years. Weaker growth below the six percent mark (5.9 percent) was expected for this year before the epidemic broke out. Depending on the course, the virus epidemic could thus become a noticeable additional burden for the Chinese economy in the midst of a growth slowdown that is already taking place.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a member of The Economist Group, warns that if the virus spreads to a pandemic beyond China, the economic impact beyond China can be significant. The SARS crisis in 2003 cost the Chinese economy 1 percent, the global economy just 0.2 percent. Nevertheless, China was booming at the time and was still growing at double-digit growth rates per year. Today, the second largest economy is economically weakened by the trade war with the United States, high corporate debt, rampant swine flu, and a pronounced real estate bubble. Added to this are the economic activities in tourism, trade and the financial market in Hong Kong, which are suffering from the protests.