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Key Takeaways
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin has bottomed and considers $400,000 a reasonable target by 2030.
It comes as Bitcoin is nearing a "golden cross."
Bitcoin could fall toward $70,000 if oil remains above $100, according to MEXC CEO Vugar Usi Zade.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by 2030 and has declared its latest market bottom, even as the escalating war in Iran threatens to disrupt its recovery.
In a CNBC interview, Armstrong predicted that the next year or two would be positive for BTC, supported by regulatory developments and anticipation surrounding the next halving.
However, some warn rising oil prices could fuel another inflation shock and send Bitcoin back toward $70,000 before Armstrong's longer-term target comes into view.
Brent crude jumped 7.5% on Thursday to $108.83 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $102.48 as the conflict involving Iran placed renewed pressure on global energy supplies.
The market is particularly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and other regional shipping corridors.
Any prolonged disruption could keep oil above $100 and feed through to transport, manufacturing and consumer prices.
That matters for Bitcoin because another inflationary surge would give the Federal Reserve less room to reduce borrowing costs.
Higher rates generally make speculative investments less appealing.
The oil rally arrived alongside hotter US producer-price data and a sharp bond-market selloff.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved close to 5%, while market pricing placed the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase above 70%.
Friday's Consumer Price Index report is therefore likely to play a central role in determining whether the Fed raises rates at its September meeting.
According to FinanceFeeds, MEXC CEO Vugar Usi Zade said Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 if interest rates rise while Brent crude remains above $100.
"The market would quickly begin to reprice the cost of liquidity for the entire fourth quarter," Zade said.
Zade said Bitcoin could fall as far as $70,000 if the Fed raises rates while Brent remains firmly above $100.
The macroeconomic pressure is developing just as Bitcoin approaches a potentially bullish technical crossover.
A golden cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average rises above a longer-term one.
Traders commonly watch the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages for signs that medium-term momentum is turning positive.
Bitcoin completed four comparable golden crosses between March 2020 and 2025, according to an analysis by FXEmpire.
The crypto gained an average of 37.7% over the following 90 days.
Repeating that average performance from current levels would place Bitcoin near $106,500.
However, a golden cross is based on historical price data and can lag behind sudden changes in market conditions.
A renewed inflation shock or further escalation in the Iran conflict could overwhelm the technical signal before a breakout occurs.
Armstrong believes the longer-term picture remains considerably more bullish.
Asked in a CNBC interview whether Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by 2030, the Coinbase chief executive said:
"The short answer is yes, I do think that that's a reasonable target by 2030."
To meet that target, Bitcoin would need to increase by more than 400% from its current price.
This would place its market capitalization comfortably above $7 trillion, depending on the circulating supply at the time.
Armstrong based his outlook partly on Bitcoin's tendency to move through multiyear periods of expansion.
He said he personally believed "the bottom is in" for the current cycle.
Bitcoin has already recovered from lows around $60,000, but it remains substantially below the record of approximately $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Bitcoin's future rally also depends on the regulation currently making its way through government.
The Senate is scheduled to hold a critical procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15, with supporters requiring 60 votes for the it to advance.
Armstrong said the bill was "ready to get a yes vote" and said that Coinbase's previous must-have concerns had been resolved.
Ethics restrictions concerning the president and his family remained under discussion, although Armstrong said negotiators appeared close to an agreement.
However, the CEO said that crypto would "still win" even if the bill failed because the SEC and CFTC were prepared to pursue new rules through their existing powers.
The combination leaves Bitcoin facing several major catalysts within just a matter of days, including: consumer inflation data, an uncertain Federal Reserve decision, the CLARITY Act vote, and an escalating conflict.
Armstrong also used an appearance on The Katie Miller Podcast to accuse Senator Elizabeth Warren of attempting to derail the CLARITY Act.
The Coinbase CEO argued that some traditional finance companies feared competition from crypto firms capable of providing cheaper and more efficient services.
"Some of them are actively lobbying against it, trying to kill it," Armstrong said.
"There's senators like Elizabeth Warren who are out there trying to kill it."
Armstrong went on to claim that Warren favored greater government control over financial services.
The CEO also credited President Donald Trump with helping revive the legislative effort, saying the president was convening industry representatives to resolve the remaining disagreements.
"Now we've got to get legislation passed to make it durable and cement it so that it can stand for many decades into the future," Armstrong said.
