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Bitcoin price rallied to $12,000, but traders are unsure whether the move is a breakout or a fakeout.
Within the past few hours, Bitcoin price rose to $11,988 before pulling back to hover around the $11,900 level. The price is on the cusp of breaking above $12,000, and some analysts have suggested that the dominant cryptocurrency is in the process of decoupling from the rest of the market, including U.S. equities.
The general sentiment around Bitcoin (BTC) among analysts and traders remains positive, and multiple on-chain analysts say that Bitcoin has been behaving like a safe-haven asset.
Technical analysis suggests that first, the $12,000 resistance level needs to be flipped to support, and previous price action around this level suggests that it will be hard for BTC to surpass it cleanly in its first retest.
The daily chart of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com
On-chain analyst Willy Woo has consistently been positive about the current Bitcoin price cycle.
Woo emphasized that BTC showing correlation with U.S. stocks in the near term makes perfect sense, but over the long term, the analyst noted that decoupling was inevitable. He said:
“The decoupling is upon us :) Makes sense that BTC will continue to be correlated in short timeframe trading; but not in the longer timeframes. BTC is a safe haven, just that ‘risk-on’ (meaning it's very new) is skewing this fact.”
While the fundamentals remain optimistic for Bitcoin, technical analysts and traders are wary about BTC at $12,000. Historically, the $12,000 level has acted as a strong resistance area for BTC.
A pseudonymous trader known as “Salsa Tekila” said that he remains careful as Bitcoin pulls closer to the $12,000 level. The trader wrote:
“Around $12K I'm very careful, think we get a pullback. Wouldn't bet against that level on it's first test.”
In addition to Bitcon’s favorable technical structure, the confluence of preferable macro factors are buoying the sentiment around BTC.
Heading into the Nov. 3 United States presidential election, risk-on assets are demonstrating a high level of uncertainty. This has caused the U.S. dollar index to decline, causing alternative stores of value to rally.
Traders are pointing to the spot market as the primary driver of today’s bullish move. Meanwhile, the futures market is cautious, but spot traders are continuing to accumulate BTC.
Derivatives trader Cantering Clark noted that there is not much buyer demand in the futures market. He said:
“Not exactly a ton of perp aggression by buyers up here. This seems mostly spot driven. Perps are still being used to bet mostly against.”
Previous bull cycles were led mostly by the futures market, particularly by BitMEX and Binance Futures. If the spot and futures market are showing contrasting directions, it could spark significant volatility in the short term.
If Bitcoin cleanly breaks $12,000, traders believe the momentum would lead to the formation of a new uptrend. Another pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” said:
“The books are super thin above 12K. If it breaches, don't try to short it. It's like standing in front of a freight train.”
