JPMorgan sees bitcoin dominating gold in 2025 as surging ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and state-level crypto reserves ignite a powerful wave of institutional momentum.

JPMorgan Spots a Massive Rotation—Bitcoin Gaining, Gold Draining

Global investment bank JPMorgan expects bitcoin to significantly outperform gold through the remainder of 2025, driven by a wave of crypto-specific catalysts that are reshaping investment flows. Analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou outlined this bullish view in a note published Wednesday and shared with The Block. “Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite, i.e. bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” they wrote. Anticipating that this shift will continue, JPMorgan stated:

In all, we expect the YTD zero sum game between gold and bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.

This view is underpinned by recent market dynamics and structural changes that favor BTC. Since April 22, gold has dropped nearly 8%, pressured by waning expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts and rising equity markets, leading to substantial outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like SPDR Gold Trust. Meanwhile, bitcoin has surged substantially, topping $100,000 for the first time in months, fueled by significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs over three weeks. Futures markets reflect the same trend, with shrinking gold positions and rising bitcoin exposure, signaling a broader investor pivot toward digital assets.

JPMorgan attributes bitcoin’s rising momentum to more than just gold’s decline, citing increased adoption by corporations and governments. An expanding group of companies is acquiring bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Microstrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR), now rebranded as Strategy, continues to grow its bitcoin holdings aggressively. Japan’s Metaplanet has also added bitcoin to its corporate treasury.

On the public sector front, U.S. states are taking steps that could institutionalize bitcoin within government financial systems. New Hampshire passed a law allowing up to 5% of state reserves to be held in bitcoin and gold, marking a historic move toward crypto in public finance. Arizona is creating a digital asset reserve using staking rewards and airdrops, avoiding taxpayer funding. These initiatives reflect a growing trend among U.S. states to institutionalize digital assets responsibly.

The JPMorgan team highlighted this potential, stating:

As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin.

Institutionalization of crypto markets is accelerating through major acquisitions and regulatory wins aimed at strengthening infrastructure and credibility. In recent developments, Coinbase is buying Deribit for $2.9B to lead in crypto derivatives, while Kraken’s $1.5B acquisition of Ninjatrader deepens its futures exposure. Gemini secured EU-wide derivatives licensing, Robinhood acquired Wonderfi for $179M to expand in Canada, and Ripple is integrating traditional finance with crypto via its $1.25B purchase of credit network Hidden Road. These moves are primed to attract a fresh wave of institutional capital into bitcoin and broader crypto markets.