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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with Jerome Powell emphasising growing uncertainty driven by the conflict involving Iran and its potential economic consequences. While the median outlook for rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, several policymakers shifted towards fewer cuts, reflecting differing individual assessments. Powell noted that any sustained rise in oil prices would likely dampen economic growth while increasing inflation, although some of the impact could be offset by stronger domestic energy production. Even so, he made clear that the overall effect of an oil shock would still place pressure on spending and employment while pushing prices higher.
Powell repeatedly stressed that the situation is too unpredictable to draw firm conclusions, warning that forecasts made under current conditions carry unusually low confidence. He highlighted the possibility that prolonged higher fuel costs could reduce household spending, but said outcomes could vary widely. He also addressed leadership uncertainty, confirming he would remain in position if a successor is not confirmed in time, and stated he would not step down during an ongoing investigation, with any future decision about his role to be made in the institution’s best interests. Source
Global markets are undergoing a sharp shift as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, particularly linked to the conflict involving Iran and its impact on energy prices. Despite signalling a possible rate cut by 2026, policymakers acknowledge that inflation remains elevated. Market volatility in precious metals is described as a temporary adjustment, with underlying conditions pointing towards a much larger upward cycle. The combination of slowing growth and rising costs is creating a stagflationary backdrop, where central banks may struggle to balance economic stability with inflation control.
The outlook presented suggests that central banks will ultimately tolerate higher inflation to manage mounting global debt, weakening the value of fiat currencies and driving investors towards tangible assets like gold and silver. Escalating energy disruptions, including threats to key supply routes, could push oil prices significantly higher and further destabilise the global economy. This environment is seen as accelerating a shift towards physical commodities, with increasing emphasis on real, verifiable assets over financial instruments, marking the potential emergence of a new commodity-driven financial order. Source
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Gold prices remain under pressure as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged while maintaining expectations for at least one rate cut by the end of the year. Policymakers held rates within the same range and projected a slight decline going forward, a stance viewed as somewhat more doveish than markets anticipated given ongoing inflation concerns. Despite this, gold prices fell, showing little support from the Fed’s outlook. The central bank struck a broadly positive tone on economic conditions, noting steady growth while acknowledging uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Economic projections suggest modestly stronger growth in the near term alongside a stable labour market, with unemployment expected to remain relatively contained. Inflation is forecast to rise in the short term but gradually ease back towards the Fed’s target over the coming years. Analysts describe the central bank as remaining cautious, opting not to make abrupt policy moves amid supply-side risks and global uncertainty, while keeping a close watch on economic developments that could influence future rate decisions. Source
Gold prices are facing mounting pressure as both technical signals and shifting market fundamentals weigh on the metal, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran. A key technical support level around the 50-day moving average has been broken, pushing prices to a multi-week low and triggering further selling. Investors have been frustrated that gold has failed to sustain its safe-haven appeal, with rising oil prices increasing inflation expectations and reducing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts. This environment has supported higher real yields, which typically act as a drag on non-yielding assets like gold.
At the same time, demand for dollar-denominated assets has strengthened, creating additional competition for gold as a safe haven. Analysts note that the current inflation shock is largely supply-driven, limiting central banks’ ability to respond effectively and contributing to a cautious policy outlook. Combined with profit-taking and reduced risk exposure among investors, these factors are expected to keep gold under pressure in the near term, with further downside also seen in silver due to its sensitivity to economic growth and higher volatility. Source
Gold’s recent surge, rising sharply over the past year, is seen by CRU Group as a structural repricing rather than a speculative bubble, driven by concerns over monetary credibility, rising global debt and shifting real interest rates. The firm argues that gold’s long-term potential is less about supply and demand and more about its role within the financial system, particularly as confidence in that system fluctuates. While prices have climbed significantly within the current framework, the analysis highlights how dramatically valuations could change under more extreme scenarios, such as partial or full backing of money supply with gold, which would imply far higher price levels.
The report suggests that even modest shifts in global capital allocation could push gold higher, with a small percentage of financial assets moving into gold potentially driving prices well beyond current levels. Ongoing concerns around sovereign debt, geopolitical tensions and weakening trust in monetary policy continue to support gold’s appeal as a store of value. Despite outlining scenarios where prices could reach five-digit territory under severe instability, CRU maintains a more moderate near-term outlook, expecting gold to peak around $6,000 within the next year before stabilising at historically elevated levels. Source
Gold and silver prices fell sharply after a stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation report triggered market reactions, pushing gold to a six-week low and silver to a four-week low. Producer prices rose faster than anticipated in February, marking the largest monthly increase in seven months, with both headline and core inflation measures exceeding forecasts. The data heightened concerns that inflationary pressures, already influenced by the ongoing Middle East conflict, may persist longer than expected, strengthening the U.S. dollar and bond yields while weighing heavily on precious metals.
Attention has now turned to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as investors look for guidance on how policymakers will respond to rising inflation risks alongside geopolitical uncertainty. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for now, markets are focused on whether the Fed signals a prolonged period of tighter policy. Meanwhile, technical indicators show both gold and silver facing key resistance and support levels, with neither bulls nor bears firmly in control as markets digest the inflation shock and broader economic outlook. Source
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25% as expected, while warning that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have increased uncertainty and downside risks for the global economy. Although global growth had been on track at around 3% prior to the conflict, surging oil and gas prices and potential supply disruptions are now expected to push inflation higher in the near term. The central bank noted that financial conditions have tightened, global bond yields have risen, and economic momentum—especially in Canada—appears weaker than previously anticipated, even as inflation had been gradually moderating.
Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted the growing risk of stagflation, where weaker economic growth coincides with rising inflation, creating a policy dilemma for central banks. While the Bank expects inflation pressures from higher energy prices to remain contained in the short term, it warned that prolonged conflict could lead to broader and more persistent price increases. Policymakers signalled they will closely monitor developments, balancing the risks of slowing growth against the need to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, as the Canadian economy navigates trade uncertainty, structural changes and global instability. Source
Gold prices fell below the key $5,000 level and came under intensified selling pressure as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced concerns about persistent price pressures. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.7% in February, significantly above forecasts, with annual wholesale inflation reaching 3.4%, the highest in a year. Core producer prices also exceeded expectations on a monthly basis, highlighting continued inflationary momentum even as some yearly measures came in slightly below forecasts.
The decline in gold was already underway before the data release but accelerated as markets reacted to the inflation surprise, with prices dropping more than 2% on the day. The figures complicate the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, as elevated inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts and may prolong tighter monetary conditions. The situation is further intensified by rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, adding to inflation risks and weighing further on gold. Source
The International Energy Agency has identified the current global energy crisis as the largest oil supply disruption on record, with output dropping sharply and creating widespread strain across supply chains. Despite a major coordinated release of global reserves, refined fuel shortages remain severe, worsened by infrastructure attacks that have undermined trust in logistics networks. Rising diesel and fertiliser costs are now feeding into agriculture, pushing inflation beyond energy markets and into food prices, just as economic conditions soften. This combination of persistent inflation and weakening labour markets presents a difficult challenge for policymakers, potentially forcing a shift away from expected rate cuts towards tighter monetary policy.
At the same time, stress is building in the private credit sector, where rising default risks and market withdrawals signal deeper financial instability. Concerns are compounded by growing national debt and increasing interest payments, which are putting pressure on the broader financial system and driving interest in physical assets such as commodities. Gold is being viewed less as a short-term hedge and more as a reflection of structural weaknesses in the financial system, although rising costs are squeezing producers. In response, investors are being urged to shift towards sectors tied to tangible resources, including energy and raw materials, as confidence in traditional financial assets becomes increasingly fragile. Source
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Retail investor enthusiasm, particularly through leveraged exchange-traded funds, played a central role in the sharp selloff in gold and silver prices in late January 2026 after a prolonged rally. Prices, especially silver, had surged significantly before plunging suddenly, with silver dropping around 30% in a single day. The reversal appeared disconnected from broader economic fundamentals and was instead driven by heavy retail inflows, high leverage, and sudden shifts in expectations around the US dollar and monetary policy. Data showed that smaller investors had built up substantial leveraged positions, leaving them vulnerable when prices turned.
The structure of leveraged ETFs amplified the downturn, as their daily rebalancing forced selling into falling markets, reinforcing price declines. At the same time, margin calls and tighter requirements triggered widespread liquidations among retail traders and other leveraged participants, creating a feedback loop of falling prices and further forced selling. While institutional investors remained relatively stable or reduced exposure gradually, retail-driven flows dominated both the rise and the collapse, highlighting how increased participation through leveraged products has intensified volatility in precious metals markets. Source
Gold prices remain near $5,000 per ounce as the conflict in Iran enters its third week, but uncertainty over the war’s duration and severity is weighing on markets. Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures expects gold and silver to follow equities, which are moving inversely to Treasury yields, and predicts a near-term decline in stocks. Rising rates and energy prices are applying pressure on precious metals, and developments in the Middle East, such as tanker movements through strategic straits, could influence market stability and sentiment in the coming days.
Pavilonis also highlighted Iran’s strategy of targeting neighbouring countries to disrupt oil exports and force the sale of US Treasuries and dollar assets, which could exacerbate market stress. He warned that stocks and metals are likely to drop together, with oil potentially reaching new highs, creating a challenging environment for investors. Under these conditions, he sees a realistic scenario where gold could fall back towards $4,200 per ounce, reflecting the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on commodities and financial markets. Source
U.S. financial markets face mounting vulnerabilities as corporate debt and pension shortfalls threaten broader instability. Triple B rated corporate bonds, which total around $5 trillion, are particularly at risk from rising interest rates and energy shocks, as downgrades could force institutional investors to sell, potentially triggering a liquidity crisis across the corporate credit sector. The disparity between highly cash-rich top companies and weaker firms masks the fragility within the market, leaving the lower-tier corporations exposed to significant financial stress if economic conditions worsen.
Retail investors and pensioners are also at risk due to illiquid private credit holdings, contributing to an estimated $4 trillion shortfall across the U.S. pension system. Pensions have increasingly relied on alternative assets, raising portfolio volatility and limiting liquidity. Stephanie Pomboy warns that government intervention may be necessary to prevent systemic fallout, potentially involving monetary expansion, which supports her bullish outlook on gold. She anticipates gold could reach $6,000 by year-end, reflecting expectations of inflation tolerance, potential bailouts, and broader financial system pressures. Source
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Despite recent sideways movement in gold prices following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, UBS analysts maintain that strong underlying demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and monetary policy considerations will drive gold as high as $6,200 per ounce by the end of 2026. Short-term pressure from higher energy prices, a stronger US dollar, and potential rate hikes has limited the metal’s safe-haven appeal, but the longer-term outlook remains supported by inflation hedging, fiscal deficits, and structural growth in demand for gold jewelry, particularly in Asia. Central bank purchases and investor positioning continue to underpin market stability, while historical patterns show gold tends to perform well against broader economic and monetary risks rather than immediate wartime shocks.
UBS also highlighted that ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts will bolster hedging demand for gold. Supply constraints, with many mines nearing the end of current production plans, are expected to tighten the market, reinforcing price support. Analysts advise investors to consider modest allocations to gold as part of a diversified portfolio to manage systemic and inflation-related risks, while also exploring broader commodity exposure in copper, aluminium, and agriculture for additional diversification. Overall, the combination of fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical factors presents a strong environment for gold to post gains of around 20% over current levels in 2026. Source
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
