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Gold has experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with prices falling sharply amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East before partially rebounding once conditions stabilised. HSBC’s Rodolphe Bohn noted that during periods of heightened risk, traditional safe-haven behaviour has been mixed, with the US dollar often absorbing demand while gold has at times been sold to raise liquidity. He also highlighted that the relationship between gold and oil is not fixed and can shift depending on the nature of shocks, with recent events showing that higher oil prices do not always translate into stronger gold prices.
Looking ahead, HSBC remains constructive on gold, pointing to persistent fiscal deficits, rising debt levels and ongoing central bank interest in diversifying reserves as key structural supports. Although interest rates remaining unchanged and relatively high real yields may limit upside, stagflation risks are expected to underpin demand over the medium to long term. Supply and demand dynamics are also shifting, with weaker jewellery consumption offset by steady institutional interest and increased recycling at higher prices, leaving more metal available for investors. Despite potential short-term headwinds, HSBC maintains a bullish medium-to-long term outlook for gold. Source
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Gold and silver prices fell in midday US trading, although both recovered slightly from earlier lows, as market sentiment shifted amid uncertainty over the prospects for an end to the US-Iran conflict. Traders focused less on safe-haven buying and more on concerns that prolonged war could weaken consumer and industrial demand, slow global economic growth, and contribute to tighter monetary conditions, all of which may weigh on metals consumption. Gold was down $62 to $4,817.60, while silver dropped $2.007 to $79.835, with broader markets also watching crude oil strength, a firmer US dollar, and elevated US Treasury yields.
Economic forecasts highlighted growing concerns about stagflation risks, with purchasing manager data expected to show weakening conditions across several major economies, including the UK and euro zone. The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook for 2026, citing the impact of higher energy prices from the conflict, while also raising inflation expectations. Despite near-term volatility, analysts note that gold and silver remain sensitive to shifts in geopolitical risk, inflation pressures, and macroeconomic uncertainty, with technical levels suggesting key resistance and support zones that could guide short-term price direction. Source
Gold prices are holding steady around $4,800 an ounce, with Standard Chartered warning that while near-term pressures remain, the longer-term outlook is still positive. Suki Cooper, the bank’s Global Head of Commodities Research, said uncertainty around the Iran conflict and lingering inflation concerns could weigh on prices in the coming months, with liquidity pressures and shifts in real yields also acting as headwinds. The bank expects gold to average about $4,605 in the second quarter before rising to around $4,850 in the third quarter, reflecting expectations of a gradual recovery later in the year.
Cooper added that the market is currently caught between inflation risks and slowing growth, but is not fully pricing in these scenarios, which could leave room for upside surprise. She also noted that gold’s relationship with real yields has shifted significantly since the conflict began, while speculative positioning has eased and investor demand shows signs of improvement through renewed inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Despite short-term uncertainty, she said structural drivers remain supportive, with the metal likely to resume its upward trend as liquidity stabilises and macro risks persist. Source
Gold’s role as a safe haven remains intact despite recent volatility linked to the Iran conflict, according to analysts at Heraeus, who argue that short-term price swings do not undermine its long-term investment appeal. They noted that gold has experienced periods of sharp declines during phases of geopolitical escalation, as speculative positioning and technical trading dynamics have at times outweighed traditional “flight to safety” behaviour. However, they maintain that the fundamental case for gold remains strong due to its role as a counterparty-free store of value and its long-term ability to preserve purchasing power amid currency debasement and monetary inflation.
The analysts also said Federal Reserve policy is likely to remain relatively supportive, as inflation pressures are seen as externally driven and not sufficient to trigger aggressive rate hikes. Beyond macro factors, they highlighted a notable increase in exploration budgets for both gold and silver, driven by record prices and stronger incentives for mine development and expansion. While spending is largely concentrated on extending existing operations rather than new greenfield projects, Heraeus warned this could create future supply constraints. They also pointed to strong silver demand, particularly from India, alongside rising recycling and mine output, with prices remaining elevated and volatile around the $80 per ounce level. Source
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Agnico Eagle Mines has announced a major expansion move in Finland’s Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, agreeing to acquire Rupert Resources, Aurion Resources, and B2Gold’s stake in a joint venture in transactions worth nearly C$4 billion in total. The deal gives the company control over a contiguous gold district in northern Finland, strengthening its position in a region already anchored by its operating Kittilä mine. The largest component is the C$2.9 billion acquisition of Rupert Resources, alongside a smaller cash deal for Aurion and the purchase of a majority stake in the Fingold joint venture.
The strategy centres on consolidating high-quality, long-life gold assets in a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction, with significant operational synergies expected across infrastructure, permitting, and workforce integration. The key asset in the package is the Ikkari deposit, estimated at 3.5 million ounces of gold, located near Agnico’s existing operations. The move reflects a broader industry trend of major gold producers paying premiums for scarce, large-scale resources as gold prices remain elevated and new discoveries become harder to find, with completion expected in early Q3 2026 pending approvals. Source
The precious metals sector showed mixed performance over the week, with silver outperforming while gold lagged despite still posting modest gains. Operational updates from miners were broadly positive, with companies such as K92 Gold and Orla Mining reporting stronger-than-expected production, helping reinforce confidence that major producers remain on track to meet or exceed guidance. At the same time, some institutional investors, including Union Bancaire Privée, have begun rebuilding gold positions after reducing exposure during the recent Iran conflict-driven sell-off, reflecting continued belief in gold’s long-term appeal.
However, gold’s short-term weakness highlights its sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts, including changes in interest rate expectations, US dollar strength, and easing inflation pressures following improvements in energy supply routes. Broader economic data also points to stress in related commodities such as diamonds, while stabilising European inflation expectations could reduce urgency for tighter monetary policy. On the positive side, gold equities are seen as undervalued relative to historical cycles, with CLSA forecasting gold to rise to $4,840 in 2026 and potentially reach $5,500 per ounce in the medium term, supported by rising production costs and expanding global money supply. Risks remain, however, including operational and geopolitical challenges, regulatory pressures in mining jurisdictions, and ongoing cost inflation affecting producer margins. Source
Gold posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain, supported by easing geopolitical tensions after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices climbed steadily through the week, breaking above key resistance levels and briefly approaching $4,900 per ounce before profit-taking late on Friday pulled the metal back to close around $4,829. Despite volatility around Middle East developments, gold maintained a strong upward trend, with analysts noting that support levels around $4,800–$4,850 held firmly throughout the week.
Sentiment across Wall Street and retail investors has turned increasingly bullish, with most expecting further gains in the week ahead as attention shifts from geopolitical risk to US economic data and Federal Reserve leadership developments. Traders are watching retail sales, labour market indicators, and consumer sentiment data, alongside a Senate hearing for Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, whose expected dovish stance could support gold. While some analysts warn of overbought conditions and potential consolidation near technical resistance, others argue that continued central bank demand, emerging market buying, and persistent macro uncertainty could push prices towards $5,000 and potentially higher, with longer-term targets extending beyond that level. Source
Gold prices enter the new week after a volatile but generally positive run, supported by easing geopolitical tensions following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire developments in the Middle East. Despite fluctuations in risk appetite, bullion has remained elevated as markets balance softer consumer sentiment and recession concerns against still-resilient US economic indicators. Silver has been more volatile and at times underperformed, reflecting its greater sensitivity to industrial growth expectations.
Attention is now shifting firmly to US economic data that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations and, in turn, precious metals direction. Key releases include retail sales, pending home sales, weekly jobless claims, the S&P Global PMI, and final University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. Stronger data would likely weigh on gold by reinforcing higher-for-longer interest rate expectations, while weaker readings could support further gains by increasing recession fears and boosting safe-haven demand. Market participants are also watching the upcoming Fed chair confirmation hearing, with expectations that a dovish tone could be supportive for gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Source
Gold prices surged sharply after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, with the move triggering strong reactions across commodities and financial markets. The announcement initially came via Iran’s foreign minister on social media and was quickly followed by confirmation from US President Donald Trump, fuelling a rapid rally in risk assets. Gold had already broken above the $4,800 per ounce level earlier in the session, but the news accelerated momentum and pushed the price close to $4,900 per ounce within minutes.
At the same time, crude oil prices fell sharply as fears of supply disruption eased, with Nymex futures dropping more than 14% on the day. The contrasting moves highlighted gold’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk and shifting safe-haven demand, as easing tensions reduced immediate energy supply concerns while still supporting investor interest in bullion during a period of heightened macro uncertainty. Source
Silver’s outlook remains uncertain despite expectations of a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone arguing that current prices may not sustain further upside momentum. He suggested that silver could trade within a broad range between $50 and $100 for years, noting that recent rallies have pushed the metal into historically stretched territory. Although he does not rule out a return to previous highs above $120 per ounce, he warned that elevated prices could ultimately reduce demand and trigger a “low-price cure” response from the supply side.
McGlone also highlighted that silver’s volatility is significantly higher than broader equity markets, reflecting its tendency for sharp price swings during speculative cycles. He compared the current rally to past parabolic moves, including 2011, suggesting that prices often revert toward long-term averages after extreme surges, with a possible pullback towards $33 per ounce in a reversion scenario. However, industry data still points to a structural supply deficit, with industrial demand expected to weaken, particularly in solar applications, while investment inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded products are projected to provide support. Source
Gold prices are struggling to sustain levels above $4,800 per ounce as improving sentiment around a potential Middle East peace deal reduces demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Despite a weaker US dollar and generally calmer financial markets, bullion has failed to maintain momentum, with prices slipping below key short-term resistance. Analysts at Pepperstone note that the market appears to be digesting earlier speculative inflows that pushed gold to record highs, with investors now showing greater caution as geopolitical risks gradually ease.
According to Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, gold is currently behaving more like a risk-sensitive asset than a classic safe haven, showing limited correlation with traditional drivers such as the US dollar and real yields. He argues that sustained upside will likely depend on whether de-escalation in the Middle East continues, while noting that broader economic conditions remain uneven across regions. The US economy appears relatively resilient, supported by consumer strength and equity market gains, but Europe and the UK face greater risks from energy dependence and potential policy missteps, which could still provide underlying support for gold if growth concerns intensify. Source
The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in five weeks against the US dollar as markets reacted positively to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Optimism around a potential diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran supported risk appetite and weakened demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. This shift helped the Canadian dollar rise to 1.3640 per US dollar after briefly reaching its strongest level since mid-March, with equities also holding onto recent gains.
Despite stronger oil prices, which typically support Canada’s export-driven economy, domestic inflation data came in slightly below expectations, with annual inflation rising to 2.4% in March. Economists noted that underlying inflation pressures remain subdued outside of energy costs, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged through 2026. Bond yields in Canada edged lower, while US yields moved higher, reflecting diverging market expectations. Overall, currency movements were driven more by global risk sentiment and oil price fluctuations than domestic inflation surprises. Source
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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