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Gold is no longer behaving like a traditional safe-haven asset and is instead acting more like a high-beta asset, according to Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution. He argues that during recent market stress linked to war, gold has fallen sharply even as equities declined only slightly, undermining its reputation as a reliable hedge. He suggests possible reasons include some selling by emerging market central banks, notably Turkey, though this appears to be an outlier, as well as the influx of newer investors attracted by the recent surge in prices who may be more likely to sell during downturns.
Brooks also links the earlier strong rally in gold to geopolitical tensions and shifts in US Federal Reserve policy, particularly the signal of rate cuts that fuelled a so-called debasement trade. He notes that gold prices peaked after a prolonged surge but have since become more closely correlated with broader risk assets, rising and falling alongside them rather than offsetting market moves. While gold’s safe-haven role is not necessarily gone permanently, he argues it has been temporarily distorted by recent market dynamics and investor behaviour. Source
Silver prices have pulled back from earlier record highs above $120 an ounce but are now seen as establishing a stronger price base around the $70 level, according to Nate Miller of Amplify ETFs. He said the metal has moved beyond the long-standing $25 to $30 range and is undergoing a consolidation phase after a sharp rally, with current stability viewed as a positive sign for both investors and producers. While the market may feel less dramatic than during peak prices, he argued that silver remains a relevant asset supported by both industrial demand and broader macroeconomic factors.
Miller said the next major direction for silver will depend heavily on inflation trends. If inflation remains persistent, silver could regain strong upside momentum as investors turn to precious metals as a store of value alongside gold. If inflation eases, he expects more moderate gains, potentially keeping prices in a $70 to $80 range, with industrial demand providing the main support. He also highlighted silver’s role as a diversifier in investment portfolios and noted that sustained higher prices are improving conditions for mining companies, encouraging new projects and investment in the sector. Source
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold and silver prices fell on Monday as inflation concerns and broader macroeconomic pressures weighed on precious metals, despite renewed geopolitical uncertainty following failed weekend peace talks between the US and Iran. Gold futures dropped by 56 dollars to 4,731.70, while silver declined by 2.46 dollars to 74.03. The move came as crude oil prices rose above 101 dollars a barrel, the US dollar edged higher, and US Treasury yields held around 4.35 percent, all of which contributed to a more cautious market tone for metals.
Image Source: Kitco News
Technical indicators suggested that gold faces resistance near 4,800 to 5,000 dollars, while support is seen around 4,700 to 4,500 dollars. For silver, resistance levels are noted around 75 to 80 dollars, with support near 72.50 and further down at 61.21. Analysts described both metals as still operating within broader trading ranges, with inflation worries and shifting expectations for global demand acting as key drivers of recent selling pressure. Source
Gold and silver are showing bearish technical signals that may indicate the precious metals bull market could be paused for several months, according to analysts at Heraeus. They suggest that despite ongoing central bank demand for gold, recent price action points to weakening momentum, with inflation and labour market uncertainty creating a difficult environment for the US Federal Reserve. The Fed is described as being caught between controlling inflation and supporting employment, with data showing mixed signals from job growth and downward revisions to previous figures. This has led to shifting expectations around interest rate cuts in 2026, though policy remains uncertain.
The analysts highlight that central banks continued to accumulate gold on balance, with several countries increasing reserves even as others sold modest amounts. However, they point to technical patterns suggesting a possible pause in the broader uptrend. Both gold and silver formed bearish engulfing patterns on monthly charts, which in past instances have been followed by extended periods of weakness or consolidation. While they note that strong inflation or persistently low real interest rates could still support a longer-term bull market, they warn that prices may drift sideways or lower in the near term, with gold potentially finding support closer to recent lows if downward momentum resumes. Silver also showed weaker investment demand in physical bar and coin sales, although year-to-date totals remain stronger than the previous year. Source
Precious metals markets saw silver outperform gold over the week, rising 5.38% compared with a 2.81% gain for gold, as sector dynamics remained mixed across prices and equities. Strengths highlighted continued central bank and institutional demand, including China purchasing 160,000 ounces of gold in March, bringing its total holdings to 74.38 million ounces. Analyst estimates also pointed to strong projected returns for gold mining companies over the next several years at elevated gold prices, alongside major corporate activity such as G Mining Ventures’ roughly C$3 billion acquisition of G2 Goldfields, which reflects ongoing consolidation in the mining sector.
Weaknesses included ETF outflows and uneven performance across precious metals equities, with US investor liquidations contributing to reduced holdings and some miners reporting declining production despite beating quarterly estimates. Larger producers in North America are also experiencing falling output, while competitors in regions such as China, Africa, and Central Asia are increasing production. Opportunities remain tied to recent share price weakness in junior miners, which may encourage further mergers and acquisitions, as well as historical patterns showing strong rebounds in mining equities after gold price corrections. Forecasts from major banks remain broadly positive over the long term, supported by central bank buying and potential interest rate cuts. However, threats include rising US fiscal deficits and debt levels, which could increase macroeconomic instability, alongside geopolitical risks affecting supply chains and costs, particularly higher fuel expenses that may pressure mining margins if sustained. Source
Gold markets were driven by shifting Iran-related geopolitical headlines throughout the week, with prices reacting sharply to news of a temporary ceasefire before settling into a broad consolidation range. Spot gold moved between roughly 4,600 and 4,835 dollars per ounce, initially dipping early in the week before rallying on the ceasefire announcement and then retreating as traders questioned how long the truce would last. By the end of the week, prices had stabilised in a range between 4,700 and 4,800 dollars, with resistance around the upper bound and support gradually rising, reflecting cautious but steady positioning.
Investor sentiment improved modestly on both Wall Street and Main Street, with survey data showing a majority expecting further gains in the near term, although analysts remained divided on direction. Some commentators argued the sell-off had been overdone and pointed to continued central bank demand and potential macroeconomic support from inflation and geopolitical risk, while others saw the market entering a sideways phase after a strong multi-month rally. Forecasts ranged from renewed advances towards 5,000 dollars or higher to extended consolidation within a wide band, highlighting uncertainty over whether inflation trends, interest rates, or geopolitical developments will dominate next moves. Source
Gold has extended its winning streak to three weeks, with sentiment improving but remaining highly sensitive to geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Prices briefly pushed above $4,800 an ounce following news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, but were unable to hold those gains. Spot gold later traded around $4,748.90 an ounce, up 1.5% over the week, with analysts suggesting that despite a stronger technical outlook, ongoing uncertainty could keep prices below $5,000 in the near term.
Market analysts remain cautious, highlighting that the ceasefire is still fragile and that a lasting peace agreement is uncertain. Inflation continues to be a key driver, with US consumer price data showing a sharper monthly rise than previously but still slightly below expectations, alongside rising annual inflation. Core inflation also edged higher, while consumer sentiment weakened and inflation expectations increased. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to remain steady in the near term, some analysts still anticipate rate cuts later in the year if inflation normalises and growth slows. In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain volatile, reacting to geopolitical developments and commentary from Federal Reserve officials amid a relatively quiet economic data calendar. Source
Gold’s recent sharp selloff during the Iran conflict has prompted JP Morgan Asset Management’s Tai Hui to argue that gold should no longer be viewed as a reliable hedge against geopolitical or market shocks, but instead as an investment asset. He said gold’s performance during crises is inconsistent, noting that it has shown a mixed relationship with equities and other risk assets and often behaves more like a volatile investment than a protective hedge. During the recent Iran-related turmoil, gold fell significantly from its peak before partially recovering, reinforcing concerns about its reliability in periods of stress.
Hui added that gold has several structural drawbacks, including high volatility, lack of income, and uncertainty around its effectiveness in diversification during downturns. While he acknowledged valid long-term reasons to hold gold, such as central bank demand and diversification away from the US dollar, he stressed that it should be considered part of an investment strategy aimed at returns rather than risk protection. Separately, JP Morgan analysts highlighted that gold’s long-term outlook remains supported by central bank buying, geopolitical fragmentation, and concerns over debt and currency debasement, although risks include potential shifts in central bank demand and reduced interest from retail investors. Source
Gold faces near-term pressure from elevated oil prices and shifting interest rate expectations, but State Street Investment Management still sees a strong chance of prices moving above $5,000 an ounce by the end of the year. The firm’s analysts, led by Aakash Doshi, expect gold to largely trade within a range of $4,750 to $5,500 for the remainder of the year, while reducing the probability of a more extreme bullish scenario. They also see support forming around the $4,000–$4,100 level, suggesting that recent volatility reflects changing market sentiment rather than a breakdown in gold’s longer-term outlook.
The analysts said recent weakness has been driven mainly by repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and higher real yields, rather than a collapse in underlying demand linked to currency debasement concerns and portfolio diversification. They noted that geopolitical tensions and oil price shocks are complicating the outlook, as higher energy costs can both fuel inflation and raise recession risks, creating mixed effects for gold. Despite these short-term uncertainties, State Street pointed to long-term support from rising global debt levels and persistent fiscal deficits, arguing that structural currency debasement risks continue to underpin demand for gold. Source
Coinbase Asset Management and MarketVector Indexes have launched a new store-of-value index called COINSOV, designed to combine Bitcoin and gold exposure in a single, rules-based strategy aimed at balancing capital preservation with upside potential. The index reflects the view that the concept of a store of value is expanding beyond gold alone, particularly amid rising global debt, fiscal deficits, and concerns about currency debasement. It uses a volatility-aware approach that dynamically shifts allocation between Bitcoin and gold based on market conditions, with the aim of capturing Bitcoin’s growth potential while maintaining a risk profile closer to gold.
The firms said the strategy rebalances quarterly and is designed to reduce drawdowns compared with static allocations, while still benefiting from Bitcoin’s stronger upside during risk-on periods. The underlying assets include Bitcoin and Pax Gold, a token backed by physical gold. The launch comes amid broader institutional interest in both gold and digital assets, with stablecoin issuer Tether highlighted as a major non-sovereign buyer of gold through both reserve holdings and its gold-backed token. Analysts note that such developments show growing competition between traditional gold investment vehicles and digital asset-linked gold products, as institutional flows increasingly influence the market. Source
Montreal-based BCA Research remains broadly bullish on gold over the medium term, although it has adopted a more cautious short-term stance due to elevated risks from speculative positioning, real interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. Chief Commodity Strategist Roukaya Ibrahim said gold’s recent behaviour reflects a shift through different phases of its bull market, from central bank buying to geopolitical demand and now more speculative inflows, particularly from Asian investors via ETFs, which could reverse quickly and add volatility.
Ibrahim noted that gold’s performance is closely tied to real interest rates and broader macroeconomic shifts, with the metal typically weakening during early inflation shocks before strengthening as growth slows and yields fall. She also highlighted central bank demand as a key structural support that helps underpin prices, even if it does not drive rallies on its own. While she remains more sceptical about silver due to its reliance on industrial demand, she expects gold to trend higher over the next 12 months and into early 2027, though near-term volatility may persist before a more favourable macroeconomic environment emerges. Source
Gold futures fell on Monday after a breakdown in diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran escalated tensions further, with the United States imposing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The move intensified concerns over global energy supply, given that around a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait daily, triggering a sharp rise in crude prices and renewed fears of inflationary pressure across global markets.
The spike in oil prices has led economists to revise inflation forecasts higher, raising the risk of renewed price pressures and complicating expectations for US Federal Reserve policy. Markets have responded by pushing back expectations for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the view that borrowing costs may remain higher for longer, which typically weighs on gold due to its lack of yield. Despite this, gold found some support during the session as safe-haven demand persisted amid geopolitical uncertainty, with prices recovering part of their losses after an initial drop. Overall, gold remains caught between inflation-driven monetary tightening pressures and its traditional role as a geopolitical hedge, leaving the market volatile and directionless in the near term. Source
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire reveals how unprecedented volatility has masked a powerful shift from paper to physical gold, as central banks and institutions accelerate de-dollarisation and establish a higher price floor.
With safe haven demand returning and systemic risks building in private credit markets, Maguire explains why gold and silver are in strong demand, as steady physical buying and tightening supply set the stage for a sharp move beyond previous highs.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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