With the debate over America's debt ceiling heating up, it seems like everyone has the magic formula to prevent an unprecedented default on the U.S.'s obligations. Established in 1917 as a way to pay for World War I without annual budgeting, the debt ceiling is the Congressionally approved limit to how much the U.S. government is allowed to borrow. Raising the debt ceiling is usually a routine matter where Congress votes on a new limit once the established one has been reached. However, in the past decades, the debt ceiling debate has been tied to general budget negotiations in Congress, with the threat of not raising the debt ceiling--and thus not allowing the U.S. government to borrow enough to cover its spending or pay off its debt -- now on the table with increasing frequency. That threat tends to send economists into a panic. But if you're in the know, you're probably experiencing deja vu. Indeed, all these "financial wizards" fail to mention that America has already defaulted twice on its commitment to government bondholders. Our first stop on this historic journey is April 5, 19, when President F.D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102. This confiscated private gold and set the stage for the first U.S. default. Fast forward to 1971, and you'll find our second dance with default. This was the year President Richard Nixon's televised declaration severed all links between the dollar and gold. Now let's jump back to the present. It's 2023, and the alarm bells are ringing again. But wait... this has nothing to do with the current debates around the debt ceiling. In a fiat money system, the U.S. could, theoretically, just print the money needed to repay its debt. Sounds simple right? Not quite. This year, the U.S. fiscal deficit is set to reach an astounding $2 trillion. The result is a tidal wave of bonds hitting the market, with the hope that eager buyers will materialize. But the norms shifting and trillion-dollar deficits becoming routine, the market might soon face a buyer shortage. Consider this: In the first quarter of 2023, interest payments on America's public debt reached $928 billion -- almost at par with defense spending. With interest payments exceeding 3% of GDP, the U.S. economy must grow by more than 3% just to cover the interest on accumulated debts. Now the Federal Reserve has been picking up the slack by buying up the unwanted bonds. However, the paradoxical consequence is that it's likely America's national debt will soon be owned by its own government via the Fed. If the fiscal situation continues to degrade, the U.S. may resort to full-fledged debt monetization, marking a third historical default. Repaying its debts by debasing its currency seems to be the only route left for the U.S. -- a patern eerily similar to fallen empires of the past. The repercussions of the debt ceiling ussue are likely to inflict irreversible damage on the credibility of the U.S. government, leading to a crisis of confidence in the bond market and widespread debt monetization. But not all hope is lost. The only safe haven for this scenario is to invest in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold,silver or real estate. The question isn't just about whether the debt ceiling will be raised. It's also about the long-term implications of America's fiscal policies. In fact, this debt ceiling drama might just be the nudge the crypto market has been craving. Let's hope for some positive momentum in the crypto market here soon. JUAN & ALEX - WEISS CRYPTO DAILY
