Analyst Predicts $650K Bitcoin Price Once ETF Investors Fully Deploy Asset Manager Recommendations

Popular onchain analyst Willy Woo has predicted a potential bitcoin price surge to $650,000 at the bull market’s peak. His prediction hinges on spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors fully deploying their assets based on recommendations from asset managers. “These are very conservative numbers. Bitcoin will beat gold cap when ETFs have completed their role,” he stressed.

Bitcoin ETFs Fuel $650K Bitcoin Price, Says Analyst

Popular onchain analyst Willy Woo shared his analysis on social media platform X on Monday following the news of Hong Kong’s regulator approving spot bitcoin and ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, launched in early January, continue to attract significant inflows.

Commenting on the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC, the analyst explained:

The new bitcoin ETFs bring price targets of $91K at the bear market bottom and $650K at the bull market top once ETF investors have fully deployed according to asset manager recommendations.

“These are very conservative numbers. Bitcoin will beat gold cap when ETFs have completed their role,” he added. However, the analyst noted that his price estimates are not targets for this cycle because “it takes a long time for capital deployments to complete.”

Explaining his “back of the envelope calculations,” Woo detailed that asset managers manage about $100 trillion and they generally recommend a 2% allocation in portfolios, citing Fidelity as an example. “This number will rise over time, but today it’s a $2T allocation into BTC,” he pointed out.

“BTC currently holds $561,159,959 of investment (we can measure this on-chain), new total will bring it to $2.56T of investment,” Woo continued. “We can use MVRV [Market Value to Realized Value] to calculate market cap vs money invested. This ratio is 5x in bull market tops and 0.7x in bear market bottoms.”

The analyst emphasized:

This translates to capitalisations of $12.8T and $1.8T respectively or $650K and $91K per coin.

Noting that he has excluded other self-custody inflows which “are way bigger right now,” he said his method is “absolutely a lower bound estimation.” Woo concluded: “Bitcoin will certainly exceed gold capitalisation by the time asset manager capital has deployed. Gold went on a 12-year bull run when its ETF was approved, now it’s bitcoin’s turn.”