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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is back — and may have an even stronger tailwind with the September jobs report.
The token hovered near $85,000 on Friday as bond yields briefly eased and seasonal trends turned supportive. Ether (ETH-USD) also rose as strategists pointed to signs of a bullish trend for cryptocurrencies. A look at Yahoo Finance's AlphaSpace chart below shows bitcoin erasing most of its year-to-date losses. This comes after a tough first half of 2026.
Despite rising Treasury yields over the past months, the token just notched its strongest quarter since 2024, rising 43% during the period.
"Seasonality is also becoming a tailwind," said Fundstrat's head of digital assets, Sean Farrell on Thursday.
Farrell noted October has historically been crypto's strongest month, with the highest median and average returns, and around an 80% win rate.
"The setup shifted in a bullish direction the past couple of days," Farrell added.
Federal Reserve rhetoric has become somewhat more measured in recent days, while a weak jobs report has reduced expectations for further rate hikes.
More than 75% of market participants now expect policymakers to hold rates steady at their October meeting, providing an added tailwind for risk assets.
However, the strategist pointed out that continued stress in sovereign bonds and credit could lead to a short-term drawdown in crypto.
"The 'glass half full' perspective is that the more stress that gets priced in without breaking BTC, the better the forward risk/reward becomes," said Farrell in a separate note on Friday.
The strategist also pointed to a recent decline in 2-year real yields, which measure the inflation-adjusted return investors earn on 2-year Treasury bonds.
If real yields continue to fall, that could help support bitcoin by reducing the relative appeal of holding short-term government debt.
On Thursday, Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case price forecast for bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000.
Ines Ferre is a Senior Business Reporter for Yahoo Finance covering the US stock market, publicly traded companies, and commodities.
