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More than 40,000 Bitcoin left Binance since Sept. 20, the strongest withdrawal pace since June 2023, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on Tuesday.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of roughly $90 million on Monday, SoSoValue data showed.
BlackRock's IBIT was the only one of the twelve funds to take in money.
Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing a divergence in investor behavior. Over 40,000 BTC worth roughly $3.3 billion has left Binance (BNB) in just 15 days, marking its strongest weekly withdrawal pace since June 2023. On the other hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted their first daily outflow in October, while futures leverage remains elevated. The question weighing on investors' minds is whether these coins moving off exchanges signal accumulation or shifting where investors hold their gains.
The exchange's reserves fell from 704,800 BTC on September 20 to 663,100 BTC, a drop of more than 40,000 coins, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. He explained on Tuesday that last week brought the strongest weekly outflows from Binance since June 2023, with about 23,100 coins withdrawn. He said early Tuesday that the pace was running higher still, though he noted the day's data was incomplete.
Coins sitting on an exchange can be sold at a click. Moving them into private custody takes an extra step, so withdrawals are read as a decision to hold rather than trade. Binance holds more Bitcoin than any other exchange, which makes its flows the most-watched version of that signal. "This accumulation is certainly building a solid floor under Bitcoin, which continues to consolidate around $85 000 as investors buy and withdraw their BTC from exchanges," the analyst wrote.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price traded near $86,000, down about 0.3% over 24 hours, holding a narrow band around the $ 85,000 range for a fourth straight day. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the 'neutral' zone, while chatter stayed at 'low' levels over the past day.
That floor was also being tested from another direction. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of roughly $90 million on Monday, their first daily outflow in October, SoSoValue data showed. BlackRock's IBIT was the only one of the twelve funds to take in money.
Weekly net inflows had already collapsed 87.7% to $208.1 million, Glassnode said in a report published on Monday.
The research firm offered a reason behind it. Glassnode's ETF MVRV, which compares the current market value of ETF holdings with their acquisition cost, rose to 1.5, above its historical high band. That means the average ETF holder was sitting on a relatively large unrealized gain, which can increase profit-taking pressure.
According to Coinglass data, futures open interest, the total value of outstanding contracts, fell 3.8% over the week to $36.6 billion. Yet the traders who stayed long paid more to stay there. Daily funding payments on bullish bets rose 57.3% to $1.5 million. Glassnode said open interest still sat near its high band, so leverage in the system remained high even after the dip.
Sellers, meanwhile, went quiet. The firm's perpetual cumulative volume delta (CVD), a running tally of whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate, recovered 90.7% to negative $87.4 million from negative $940.1 million, meaning the heavy selling behind last Monday's drop had largely stopped.
The price may have looked asleep, but the network did not. Active addresses rose 6.1% on the week to 675,800, above their high band, Glassnode said. Hot capital share, the portion of network value held by investors who bought within the past three months, climbed to 19.5% from 18.9%.
So the market was pulling two ways at once. Coins keep moving into cold storage while ETF money steps back, and new buyers keep arriving while the ones already here sit on profits worth taking. About 73.6% of the supply was in profit.
