x
Key Takeaways
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone says a sustained 20% drawdown in the S&P 500 could send Bitcoin toward $10,000.
The warning arrives as markets price in an 87% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 16.
McGlone has repeatedly predicted a return to $10,000 since December 2025.
Bitcoin's price could collapse toward $10,000 if the US stock market suffers a prolonged 20% correction, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.
In a new post on X, McGlone described Bitcoin as an increasingly inefficient way to gain exposure to the same forces already driving equities.
His latest warning lands as investors brace for a Federal Reserve decision on Sept. 16, with markets pricing an 87% chance of a rate hike.
McGlone highlighted three developments that he believes could pull Bitcoin substantially lower:
Bitcoin's failure to break decisively through $80,000.
Fed funds futures are pricing approximately 70 basis points of rate increases over the next year.
The S&P 500's historically elevated position above its 200-week moving average.
However, the most striking part of his argument was the specific trigger he attached to the $10,000 forecast.
McGlone said a sustained decline of roughly 20% in the S&P 500 could be enough to send Bitcoin back toward its long-term pivot around $10,000.
With the S&P 500 closing near 7,657 on Sept. 11, a 20% correction would take the index to approximately 6,126.
The analyst called Bitcoin a "stock puppet" because of its historical relationship with the S&P 500, especially during periods when investors rapidly reduce exposure to speculative assets.
McGlone said Bitcoin could disprove his argument by demonstrating sustained strength while equities weaken.
The timing of the warning is notable, as interest-rate futures priced in a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike on Sept. 16 at approximately 87% following the latest inflation data.
The probability of at least one increase before the end of 2026 also rose to 97%.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hold above $80,000 as expectations of tighter monetary policy have strengthened the dollar.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained close to 5% on Sept. 14, while elevated oil prices continued to fuel concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high.
McGlone separately warned that oil above $100 could "break stuff" across highly valued markets.
A rate increase would not, however, guarantee an equity crash.
Goldman Sachs cross-asset sales head Jonathan Shugar argued that strong corporate earnings could allow stocks to withstand modest tightening.
Shugar said the S&P 500 could climb above 8,000 by the end of 2026 or during 2027.
McGlone's destination has remained consistent, but his reasoning has evolved over time.
In December 2025, he argued that most of the events Bitcoin investors had spent years anticipating had already happened.
This included spot exchange-traded funds, Donald Trump's political support, and wider institutional acceptance.
With those catalysts priced in, McGlone said Bitcoin was vulnerable to returning toward the level it occupied before Michael Saylor's Strategy began accumulating the asset in 2020.
Bitcoin was trading around $87,200 when CCN reported that warning.
In February 2026, McGlone presented the collapse in crypto prices as a possible leading indicator of a US recession.
Bitcoin traded near $67,800 at the time.
McGlone returned to the prediction in August, describing Bitcoin's inability to remain above its 2021 peak of roughly $69,000 as evidence of a "Faustian bargain unwind."
BTC was then trading around $64,100.
Bitcoin has since climbed approximately 21%, weakening the immediate momentum behind that version of his thesis.
However, it remains below the level recorded when he first issued the forecast in December.
Recent market data offers some support for McGlone's concern.
An analysis of 260 comparable trading observations found that Bitcoin declined on 22 of the 25 occasions when the S&P 500 lost more than 1%.
However, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have also been diverging over longer timeframes.
Bitwise Europe reported that the 260-day correlation between their logarithmic price levels had fallen to its lowest level since 2015.
The asset manager said Bitcoin had outperformed the S&P 500 for three consecutive weeks, but cautioned that prior periods of decoupling have rarely been permanent.
Bitwise identified approximately $70,000 as an important level relative to Bitcoin's 200-day moving average.
Its more severe downside zone sits between approximately $53,000 and $65,000.
A decisive move above approximately $83,000 would offer stronger evidence that Bitcoin's previous bear market has ended, according to the firm.
A decline from $77,600 to $10,000 would erase approximately 87% of Bitcoin's current value.
Measured from its October 2025 record of $126,198, the total drawdown would exceed 92%.
Bitcoin has suffered collapses of similar magnitude during earlier market cycles.
However, its current market structure is substantially different.
Before reaching $10,000, Bitcoin would need to break through:
Its 200-day moving average is near $70,000.
Bitwise's severe downside range is between $53,000 and $65,000.
The 2022 cycle low was around $15,500.
