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Bitcoin's options market priced in almost no added risk after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, even though two policymakers wanted a hike and traders lifted their bets on one in December.
Deribit's DVOL index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility on the exchange's bitcoin options, stood at 37.59 at 2 p.m. ET, when the statement was released. It dipped to 37.41 within the hour and read 37.58 at 4:45 p.m. ET, staying between 37.22 and 37.63, Deribit's public data shows.
Spot prices barely moved either. Bitcoin changed hands at $80,763 on Coinbase just before 2 p.m. ET and at $81,027 at 4:45 p.m. ET, a gain of 0.33%. In the first hour after the release it traded between $80,600 and $81,234. Ether rose 0.35% on Coinbase over the same window, to $2,351 from $2,342.
Funding on Deribit's bitcoin perpetual future, the fee long holders pay short holders, eased to an eight-hour rate of 0.0058% at 4 p.m. ET from 0.0074% at 2 p.m. ET, Deribit data shows.
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The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Two of the 12 voters, Governor Lisa Cook and the Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, pushed for another 25-basis-point move. The hold came one meeting after the Fed's first hike since 2023, in September, which crypto markets absorbed with little damage.
The statement said inflation "remains elevated" and that the Committee "will deliver price stability." Annual CPI inflation reached 3.7% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Oct. 14 release, and bitcoin slid to about $80,500 that night.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in his press conference opening statement that conditions had begun to change since the September move and that "market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations." He added: "While overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight." His prepared remarks did not mention crypto.
The odds of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting rose to 82.6% from 78.3% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch figures cited by Fox Business in an update at 3:55 p.m. ET.
The response differs from June, when bitcoin slid after a hawkish hold at Warsh's first meeting as chair. With DVOL near 37.6, bitcoin options were pricing a one-standard-deviation daily move of about 2%, dividing the index by the square root of 365.
