WILLIAM SUBERG

Here are the BTC price levels to watch as $38K emerges as bulls' line in the sand

A weekly close much below current levels would be a problem, analysis warns, as key moving averages hang in the balance.

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MARKETS NEWS

Bitcoin (BTC) needs to retain two key moving averages in order to stay bullish, but is failing, fresh analysis shows.

In its latest market update on Sept. 10, trading platform Decentrader warned that bulls do not have the upper hand much above current price levels.

A "golden cross" like any other?

Bitcoin has drifted lower into the weekend, at the time of writing sitting near $45,500. This is below the significant 200-day moving average (MA) and barely above the 50-day MA.

For Decentrader’s Filbfilb, these would need to be reclaimed in order to fuel continuation of the bull run.

“For Bitcoin to remain bullish, these two moving averages will need to be maintained, with any price action lower being intraweek – a weekly close below the 50 DMA would not be attractive, particularly if the 20 Week moving average is also lost (yellow line currently around $42k),” he summarized.

The 50 and 200 DMA were on the way to printing a “golden cross,” traditionally a bullish signal, but this week’s dramatic sell-off may yet derail the process.

“The selloff came amidst a pending ‘Golden Cross’ where the 50 DMA crosses above the 200 DMA,” Filbfilb continued.

“This is often seen as being a very bullish sign for the market and typically for Bitcoin, we see dumps into ‘Golden Crosses’ and pumps into ‘Death Crosses’, So on this basis alone, the pullback wasn’t too much of a surprise.”

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50 and 200 DMA. Source: TradingView

Should bulls need more impetus to enter, $38,000 — the site of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from $64,500 all-time highs — may yet provide the ultimate line in the sand in the case of a more intense BTC price correction.

$60,000 coming "early in Q4"

As Cointelegraph reported, longer-term bullishness among analysts has changed little despite this week’s events.

Related: Price analysis 9/10: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LUNA, UNI

September is already tipped to be a lackluster month based on historical patterns, but beginning next month, BTC price action is widely anticipated to change dramatically.

“We are anticipating the $60k level to be retested sometime early in Q4, which will likely provide another correction with a final push to all-time highs towards the end of the year,” Filbfilb added.

These all-time highs could focus on the $100,000 mark, in line with end-of-year targets from other sources.