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After reaching new all-time highs over a year ago, gold is bound to climb back to its peak soon, said Bloomberg Intelligence in its October price outlook.
"It's only been about a year since gold's last peak, and we believe it should be a relatively short matter of time to revisit," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. "Gold has outperformed most major commodities in the past 20 years."
Gold's new all-time high stands above $2,060 an ounce, which was hit back in August 2020. At the time of writing, December Comex gold futures were trading at $1,769.30, up 0.62% on the day.
Despite this year's failure to launch, gold is still in an enduring bull market, McGlone pointed out.
"Gold, like Treasury prices, has an enduring bull market in its favor, and a correction within that trend improves its relative value," he said. "Gold appears too cold approaching the start of 4Q … Risks tilt toward a continuation of September's stock-market volatility, which should favor gold in 4Q."
The question McGlone asked in his October outlook is whether gold has reached its maximum disdain? This seems to be the psychological marker it needs to breach before resuming its rally.
So far, the yellow metal has been having a disappointing year, failing to attract new buyers despite inflation fears and debt worries. Year-to-date, gold is down more than 7% after selling off at the $1,800 an ounce level multiple times.
The main obstacle for gold has been a strong U.S. stock market, according to McGlone.
"The metal's nemesis -- the U.S. stock market -- hasn't had a meaningful pullback since the 2020 low. If equities are entering a more sustained wobbling period, we see gold, Treasury bonds and Bitcoin as top contenders for outperformance," he wrote. "It's a question of whether gold has reached a level of maximum disdain, which is probably close."
Industrial metals, on the other hand, are unluckily to cover unless the stock market does.
"We believe industrial metals have little chance of appreciating. A strengthening dollar and weakening China typically aren't good for copper. Rare among metals, gold prices seem too cold," McGlone noted. Several things are working against industrial metals: copper peaking just above $10,000 a ton in May, China cutting its required reserve ratio in July and issues with Evergrande coming to the forefront in September. Risks tilt toward more reversion in 4Q."
By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News
