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"Altcoin indicators and indices suggest that altcoin season is imminent, so how come nobody is bullish? In short, it’s because these indicators and indices don’t tell the whole story, but they are directionally right.
To figure out exactly when the ‘real’ altcoin season will start, all we need to do is take a closer look at the right indicators and be mindful of the catalysts that could drive attention and capital to altcoins.
Even though more and more capital is likely to go towards fewer and fewer cryptos as the crypto market matures, there will still be lots of moonshots among small caps and mid caps, you just have to be picky.
Today we tell you everything you need to look out for. Enjoy!"
~ Coin Bureau
The video discusses the concept of "altcoin season" in the crypto market, questioning the reliability of popular indicators like the Altcoin Season Index, which often only track the top 75-125 altcoins and thus don't reflect the performance of smaller-cap altcoins. The speaker suggests that a more reliable directional indicator is Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), which measures the percentage of the total crypto market cap held by Bitcoin. A rapid, long-term drop in BTCD, particularly down to the 40% to 48% range, typically signals the start of a broad altcoin season, which the video speculates could occur sometime between October/November 2025 and January/February 2026, depending on the cycle's length.
The video identifies several major catalysts that could drive the next altcoin season by attracting attention and investment. These include the potential approval of spot altcoin ETFs starting in early October, the expected vote on the Clarity Act—a comprehensive altcoin regulation bill—by the end of October, and the SEC's proposed "Innovation Exemption," which could temporarily legalize most crypto activities in the US and is anticipated before the end of the year. The speaker notes that these bullish catalysts are aligning with a favourable macroeconomic backdrop, characterized by a dovish Federal Reserve, a potentially subsiding geopolitical landscape, and strong performance in other speculative asset classes like small-cap stocks (Russell 2000), which historically correlate with altcoins. However, the next altcoin season is predicted to be narrower in scope than previous ones, with returns concentrated in fewer cryptos, primarily due to the market's maturity and the difficulty large investors have in allocating to small-cap tokens without causing significant slippage. Investors are advised to be highly selective, focusing on small-caps with simple narratives and easy accessibility on exchanges or fast blockchains like Solana and Base, and mid-caps that are newer to avoid previous bag holders.
00:00 Intro
01:03 How To Tell We’re In An Altcoin Season
05:01 What Is Required For Altcoin Season To Happen?
08:51 Macro Conditions And Altcoin Season
13:00 Will The Next Altcoin Season Be Bigger Or Smaller?
16:27 Which Altcoins Will Perform The Best?
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYqopTuU9Ws
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
