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"Bitcoin just crashed from six figures to the low 80Ks, ETF inflows have stalled, DATs are wobbling, and altcoin bags are bleeding out. In this episode of the Coin Bureau Podcast, Nick sits down with on-chain savant James Check (Checkmate) to unpack whether this is a true Bitcoin bear market or just a brutal reset before the next leg higher. They dive into realized cap, true market mean around 82K, ETF cost bases, OG whale distribution and why “bear markets are a mindset” rather than just a % drawdown.
From the death of altcoin season and the Zcash marketing pump, to privacy coins, DAT flywheels, quantum-computing FUD, Bitcoin vs gold, AI bubbles, liquidity cycles and the coming wave of institutional and sovereign buyers into 2026 – nothing is off the table. If you want deep, data-driven on-chain Bitcoin analysis instead of hopium, this conversation is for you."
~ Coin Bureau
The Coin Bureau podcast featured James Check of Check OnChain to analyse the recent Bitcoin price correction to the $80,000 level, which he attributes to the market breaking down through key on-chain support levels, specifically the $95K mark, with the $82K "true market mean" acting as a centre of gravity where active investors are at their average cost basis. He defines a bear market not by price depth but by shattered investor sentiment and a tendency to sell into rallies, and he has been buying at the current depressed levels. Check views the current distribution as a healthy "changing of the guard" as early "OG" holders sell large volumes to new institutional ETF buyers who, despite the 35% drawdown, are proving to be resilient. Looking ahead to 2026, he predicts that the next major wave of adoption will come from existing institutional investors simply increasing their small allocations, a change he expects to be catalysed by Bitcoin's eventual return to a new all-time high. Check also maintains a strong conviction against altcoins, arguing most lack a compelling product or utility and are fundamentally overvalued, dismissing the recent Zcash rally as an isolated, successful marketing campaign rather than a sign of a broad altcoin season.
0:00 Intro: Bear market mindset, shattered sentiment
1:06 Who is James Check? Glassnode → Checkonchain
1:56 How James fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole
3:24 Realized cap & why Bitcoin has “intrinsic value”
5:16 Why BTC dumped to 80K — the 95K danger zone
7:10 True Market Mean explained (82K support)
9:07 Are we in a bear market? Key on-chain signals
11:22 Capitulation psychology & loss dynamics
15:10 OG whale selling vs ETF demand (major rotation)
18:10 Are institutions sticking around? ETF flow analysis
19:59 DATs, Strategy (MSTR), and forced-selling risk
22:44 Who’s the next big Bitcoin buyer? 2026 outlook
25:09 Why BTC needs new all-time highs for conviction
26:07 Regulation, GENIUS Act & market structure clarity
28:06 Why James holds gold + Bitcoin (macro hedge)
33:12 Bitcoin–NASDAQ correlation & AI bubble risks
35:34 Macro outlook into 2026 — liquidity & elections
38:14 The quantum threat: realistic or overblown?
43:39 The altcoin question — why James thinks alts are cooked
48:14 Zcash pump: privacy hedge or marketing play?
51:33 Top & bottom signals (XRP guy in the outback)
54:56 Beliefs James changed in his Bitcoin journey
56:49 Where to find James Check & Checkonchain
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhlh_UHy6f0
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
