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Silver Price News: Silver Nudges Lower in Quiet Trading
Silver prices fell back a few cents on Tuesday in lacklustre conditions, with the market following in line with a modest drop in gold prices.
Prices briefly tested the downside at around $24.76 an ounce before recovering slightly to around $24.94 an ounce later in the session. That compared with $25.05 to $25.10 an ounce in late deals on Monday.
The slight weakness for silver on Tuesday mirrored modest weakness in gold prices, with the markets in wait-and-see mode for further direction.
This week will likely be dominated by the US Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, widely expected to show a continuation of the existing 5.5% rate, followed by the Bank of England’s turn on Thursday, where rates of 5.25% are expected to be similarly kept on hold. Of more significance for the market will be any fresh clues about plans for monetary easing, with markets currently betting on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut by the US Fed in June. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Eases Slightly As US Dollar Strengthens
Gold prices moved slightly lower on Tuesday in calm conditions, coming under moderate pressure from a stronger US dollar.
Prices eased to around $2,157 an ounce by late afternoon Tuesday, having posted an intraday low of $2,148 an ounce. That compared with around $2,161 in late deals on Monday.
The US Fed is widely expected to maintain the existing interest rate of 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday, as the central bank works to bring inflation under control. There will also follow an announcement by the FOMC on its economic projections and a press conference later in the day. The markets will be watching closely for further signs of any upcoming start to a rate-cutting cycle, with views now mixed on the probability of a June rate cut, according to data from interest rate traders. Read More
Gold’s year-ahead returns projected at 8.46%, Fed cuts are ‘icing on the cake’ – QuantStreet Capital’s Mamaysky
Gold remains under-allocated in investor portfolios, and the Fed’s imminent easing cycle will likely make it an even more attractive asset this year, according to Columbia Business School professor and QuantStreet Capital partner Harry Mamaysky.
In an in-depth analysis of gold’s investment prospects published by Advisor Perspectives, Mamaysky begins by addressing the performance of the hottest current alternative asset, Bitcoin, which “has skyrocketed in the weeks after the introduction of bitcoin ETFs.”
“Gold prices, denominated in units of bitcoin, have plunged close to their all-time lows from late 2021,” he noted.
However, Mamaysky said that many of the arguments that favor investment in bitcoin also apply to gold. “Gold is a store of value that has been a good inflation hedge in the long run,” he said. “Gold is in limited supply (barring major advances in space exploration). Gold is easy to trade because there are multiple liquid ETFs that allow investors to allocate to it in their brokerage accounts. And should the internet ever go dark (hopefully this will never happen), gold will still sit safely in its vaults, whereas bitcoin… well, you know.” Read More
Gold remains a core asset to hold ahead of U.S. elections - Société Générale
Gold remains a core asset for portfolio managers at Société Générale as the French bank only makes minor adjustments to its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the second quarter.
For the third consecutive quarter, the French bank said it would maintain a 5% exposure to gold, even as it reduced its overall commodity holdings by 1% in its multi-asset portfolio ahead of the second quarter.
The bank’s total commodity holdings represent 9% of the portfolio, as it places bets on copper over oil. The analysts said they are keeping their gold investors warm, specifically as geopolitical tensions continue rising ahead of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
“Ahead of the US election and associated risks on the fiscal policy, we find virtue in precious metals,” the analysts said. Read More
Indian gold market a mixed picture of muted consumer demand amid surging imports and exports
High prices are choking India’s consumer gold demand even as imports, ETF inflows and central bank purchases surge, according to Kavita Chacko, Research Head for India at the World Gold Council (WGC).
After a negative performance in February, Chacko noted in the latest WGC update that gold hit multiple all-time highs in March as it continues to trade above $2,100 per ounce. “The price increase can, in part, be explained by USD weakness, a decline in US Treasury yields, an increase in market volatility, weak US economic data print, and other factors such as ‘technicals’ and over-the-counter activity,” she said.
“While the gold price touched record highs in USD and other major currencies, the INR included, the domestic landed price in India witnessed a smaller increase of 4% to INR66,529/10g due to the strength in the rupee (0.2% appreciation w/w),” she said. Read More
It doesn’t matter when the Fed cuts, rates are going to zero, and gold is going higher - Monetary Metal’s Keith Weiner
While the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance will continue to dominate short-term gold price volatility, one market strategist said that there are much bigger long-term patterns investors need to pay attention to.
In an interview with Kitco News Monday, Keith Weiner, CEO of Monetary Metals, said that regardless of when the U.S. central bank begins its easing cycle when it starts, interest rates are headed back to zero, which will be positive for gold.
He explained that the biggest issue for the economy is that interest rates are currency higher than the return on capital.
He noted that the impact higher interest rates have had on commercial real estate, as the sector has lost trillions of dollars in value in the last few years, is just an appetizer in what he sees as a ten-course meal. He explained that there will have to be mass liquidations across all sectors of the economy as businesses adjust to higher costs of capital.
“The Federal Reserve will have to reverse interest rates and put them back to where interest rates are not so far above the return on capital, and that's basically zero,” he said. Read More
Gold traders position themselves ahead of potentially pivotal FOMC
The gold community on X is buzzing as retail traders scramble to read the tea leaves and position themselves to profit from what promises to be a significant FOMC rate decision.
The central bank will issue its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 pm EST, and while analysts and traders are virtually unanimous in their belief that a rate cut is not on the table this month, there’s still potential for drama.
The Fed is due to share the first updated ‘dot plots’, or rate path projections, since the December meeting, and many market participants believe the latest FOMC voter data could suggest 50 rather than 75 bps of cuts this year. There’s also a possibility that the Fed pulls back from its implied easing bias and sets monetary policy on more neutral footing.
All this adds up to a great deal of potential volatility for gold bugs, as changes to the timing and scale of this year’s rate cuts will likely depress gold prices. Read More
Gold prices jump higher as Federal Reserve signals three rate cuts this year
Gold investors are breathing a sigh of relief, and the market is seeing some renewed buying momentum as the Federal Reserve signals that it is still on track to lower interest rates three times this year.
Wednesday, in a much-anticipated move, the Federal Reserve announced that it would leave its Fed Funds rate unchanged in a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. However, markets were more interested in central banks' forward guidance and where they see interest rates by the end of the year.
The central bank’s updated interest rate forecast, also known as the “dot plot,” shows the committee sees the Fed Funds rate ending the year at 4.6%, unchanged from December.
The gold market was trading in relatively neutral territory ahead of the announcement and jumped into positive territory in the initial reaction. Spot gold prices last traded at $2,1673.60 an ounce, up 0.77% on the day. Read More
Gold price rallies after FOMC statement deemed not too hawkish
Gold and silver prices are higher and neare daily highs in U.S. trading Wednesday, following a Federal Reserve monetary policy statement that the precious metals bulls saw as price-friendly. April gold was last up $13.30 at $2,173.10. May silver was last up $0.29 at $25.425.
The just-concluded Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting saw the Federal Reserve keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The key Fed Funds interest rate range was kept steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC statement seemingly walked a neutral line on policy: not too hawkish and not too dovish. The statement said the U.S. economy is growing and inflation has eased but is still elevated. The statement said no rate cuts will occur until the Fed has more confidence inflation has been tamed. Still, the statement said the Fed sees three interest rat cuts this year. Judging by the reaction of the gold market, traders deemed the FOMC statement as not being too hawkish, and that the Fed appears willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation for longer. Now the marketplace awaits the afternoon press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders will closely scrutinize Powell’s remarks for clues on the future path and timing of Fed monetary policy.
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. A bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, but needs to see an upside breakout very soon to complete the formation. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,203.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,100.00. First resistance is seen at $2,180.00 and then at $2,190.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,149.20 and then at $2.140.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
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May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $25.66 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.00 and then at $24.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. Read More
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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
