x
Gold and silver markets are navigating turbulent waters, with prices swinging sharply as geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the global landscape.
Michael Zinn says markets are being driven more by surging bond yields than by geopolitical headlines, with rising Japanese yields pulling global rates higher and pushing U.S. 10-year yields toward the top of their recent range near 4.3%. Higher yields are discouraging risk-taking, weighing on equities, and sending investors toward safe havens, especially gold, which has been trading close to record highs around 4,888 dollars per ounce. He views the current sell-off as sharp but likely temporary within an otherwise solid economic backdrop, advising patience as elevated yields in both the U.S. and Japan continue to pressure stocks and support demand for gold.
Looking to 2026, Zinn expects leadership to shift away from large technology stocks toward commodities and other sectors such as energy, materials, small caps and housing, noting that tech has already been lagging while these areas have performed well. He also anticipates increased market volatility ahead of U.S. midterm elections due to policy uncertainty and potential populist measures affecting credit, utilities and large data centre operators. At the same time, he believes the Trump administration is strongly motivated to push rates lower and could intervene through tools such as mortgage bond purchases or influence over future Federal Reserve leadership if yields rise further, which could create both short-term disruption and longer-term buying opportunities. Source
Ryan McIntyre says gold’s strong rally has not yet drawn in major institutional investors, who remain stuck in the early stages of reassessing the asset. Using the OODA decision framework, he argues that institutions have observed rising prices but have not progressed beyond the orientation phase, largely because many firms have lost in-house expertise in precious metals and no longer have senior advocates pushing for exposure. Despite gold rising at a pace that would normally trigger heavy allocations in other asset classes, Sprott has not received new institutional mandates focused on gold or mining equities, highlighting how limited professional participation still is.
He adds that gold-backed ETF holdings, mining stock investment, and overall sector risk appetite remain far below past peaks, signalling that the market is still early in its cycle rather than overcrowded. McIntyre expects institutional demand to emerge as instability grows in equity markets and as concerns deepen over government debt, bond market volatility, and persistent inflation, which he views as making long-term bonds unattractive. He favours portfolios eventually holding about 10% in gold and 5% in mining shares, and believes gold will outperform both stocks and bonds for the foreseeable future, even as some forecasts point to prices reaching 5,000 dollars an ounce this year. Source
Geopolitical tensions linked to President Trump’s threats of tariffs against Europe and his push for control over Greenland have driven investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets, lifting gold sharply higher. Although Trump said he would not use military force, his stance has unsettled allies, with some EU members warning they could sell U.S. Treasurys and impose retaliatory tariffs. Denmark’s AkademikerPension has already sold 100 million dollars in U.S. bonds, citing rising American government debt. At the same time, U.S. 10-year yields have climbed to around 4.27% and the dollar index has hovered near 98, reinforcing demand for safe havens as gold surged past 4,700 and then 4,800 dollars an ounce, reaching about 4,866.80 in spot trading.
Market analysts say the move reflects renewed fears of a trade war, fragile economic conditions, and a revival of the “sell America” narrative, with gold seen as the standout beneficiary of the flight to safety. Some strategists now openly discuss the possibility of prices reaching 5,000 dollars an ounce, arguing that geopolitical risk, bond market instability, and persistent uncertainty continue to support the metal. Others caution that European threats to dump Treasurys may be exaggerated, noting that large-scale selling would also drive up borrowing costs in Europe and damage bond markets globally. Even so, sentiment remains stretched in favour of gold as investors hedge against escalating political and economic risks. Source
Gold remained sharply higher but eased back from a new overnight record after President Trump said he would not use military force to acquire Greenland, slightly reducing market anxiety. February gold futures last traded around 4,850.30 dollars an ounce after touching an all-time high near 4,891.10, while silver weakened on profit taking to about 93.59 dollars. The recent surge in both metals has been driven by safe-haven demand linked to geopolitical tensions over Greenland and turmoil in Japanese government debt markets. Central bank buying is also adding support, with Poland approving plans to purchase another 150 tons of gold and Bolivia resuming gold purchases for its reserves.
Investors are closely watching Japan’s bond market, where rising volatility and political uncertainty ahead of a snap election on Feb. 8 have pushed long-term yields sharply higher and raised concerns about global spillover effects. Analysts warn that large portfolio adjustments by risk-parity funds could trigger significant bond selling internationally, including in the United States. Elsewhere, crude oil traded near 60.50 dollars a barrel, the U.S. dollar index was steady, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.25 percent. Technical analysts say gold faces resistance near 4,900 to 5,000 dollars, while silver’s next major hurdle is near 100 dollars an ounce. Source
Mark Thornton says the global financial system is under severe strain as central banks lose trust in one another and bond markets, particularly in Japan, show signs of instability while precious metals surge. He argues that this divergence signals a deeper shift in the monetary order, with fiat currencies weakening even if they are not yet collapsing. Market volatility underscored his view, with U.S. stocks falling and silver swinging sharply toward the mid-90 dollar range before retreating. He highlighted Poland’s decision to buy an additional 150 tons of gold, a purchase valued near 23 billion dollars, as evidence that some governments now prefer physical reserves over interest-bearing bonds, especially after seeing how sanctions froze Russia’s foreign exchange assets while its gold holdings rose in value.
Thornton also warned of a structural supply crisis in silver, noting that roughly three quarters of global production comes as a byproduct of other metals, meaning output falls when economic activity slows. He said persistent annual deficits of more than 200 million ounces and irreversible industrial use in areas such as solar panels and munitions could eventually push silver well beyond 100 dollars an ounce. As another warning sign, he pointed to the rapid restart of Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Tower, arguing that record-breaking skyscraper projects often coincide with late-cycle excess before major downturns. For 2026, he expects agricultural commodities to outperform stocks and urged investors to rely less on government policy and more on hard assets and real-economy sectors. Source
Watch the podcast - Dr. Mark Thornton Warns 'Fiat Is In The ICU' And Central Banks Do Not Trust Each Other
President Trump has escalated pressure on European countries to support his push for Greenland to become a U.S. state, threatening tariffs starting at 10% from February 1 and rising to 25% by June if allies do not comply. The shift follows recent aggressive foreign policy moves and has already prompted visible reactions, including the early withdrawal of a German military reconnaissance team from Greenland. Markets have started to reflect the uncertainty, with European stocks opening lower, U.S. equity futures dropping by more than 1%, and Treasury yields rising as investors grow cautious about the potential for a wider economic confrontation.
European governments could respond with tariffs on U.S. goods, restrictions on American companies, or by using their large financial leverage, as they hold around 8 trillion dollars in U.S. stocks and bonds, which in theory could pressure U.S. markets sharply. A historical parallel is the 1956 Suez Crisis, when the United States prepared to use bond sales to weaken the British pound, showing how financial tools can influence geopolitical outcomes. While a coordinated European sell-off is considered unlikely, a full escalation would add stress to already fragile markets. So far, investors are nervous but not panicked, and past experience suggests Trump has often retreated when markets react strongly to his policies. Source
Peter Kinsella argues that silver is unattractive after rising more than 30 percent this year and around 50 to 60 percent in just a few months, especially given extremely high volatility that is already around 65 percent and could climb further. He says the recent decision by the United States not to impose tariffs on silver has contributed to large domestic stockpiles that are likely to be redistributed globally, easing leasing rates and weakening claims of a physical shortage. In his view, silver’s surge largely reflects its tendency to move more sharply than gold rather than a change in fundamentals, and prices would only justify further gains if the gold-to-silver ratio fell to historically unrealistic levels. Even if gold were to rise to about 5,000 dollars per ounce by year end, silver would likely still be near current prices, leaving little upside for new buyers.
Gold, by contrast, still looks compelling to him despite trading at record highs. He points to a growing climate of resource nationalism and geopolitical tension, citing recent developments involving Venezuela and Greenland as examples of how quickly competition over strategic assets can escalate. Such risks, he says, are not well captured by currencies and are better hedged through exposure to precious metals. As a result, he believes gold remains one of the most effective ways to position for instability and still has meaningful room to rise. Source
The London Bullion Market Association’s latest analyst survey points to continued strength in gold, with an average forecast price of about 4,741.97 dollars an ounce for the year, driven by expectations of lower US real interest rates, ongoing Federal Reserve easing, sustained central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical tension. Individual forecasts vary widely, with estimates ranging from a low of 3,450 dollars to a high of 7,150 dollars an ounce, a spread more than double last year’s price movement. The most bullish analyst expects gold to average around 6,050 dollars and remain supported above 4,100 dollars as geopolitical risks, institutional investment, retail demand in regions such as Latin America, and further rate cuts reinforce safe-haven demand. More cautious views still see gold averaging around 4,000 dollars with peaks near 5,000 dollars, while even the lowest projections acknowledge strong underlying investment support despite the likelihood of periodic profit-taking.
Silver is expected to remain highly volatile after last year’s surge of nearly 150 percent, with analysts forecasting an average price near 79.57 dollars an ounce, almost double the prior year’s average, supported by structural supply deficits and rising demand from electrification, electronics, and AI-related technologies. The most optimistic outlook sees average prices near 125 dollars with potential highs as far as 150 to 165 dollars, while the most bearish forecast expects a retreat toward the mid-40 dollar range if US stockpiles return to global markets and physical and investor demand weakens. For platinum group metals, sentiment is also positive, with platinum projected to average about 2,222.14 dollars an ounce, outperforming palladium, which is forecast to average around 1,740.25 dollars, reflecting expectations of tighter markets and improving industrial demand across the sector. Source
David Wilson says gold’s surge toward 5,000 dollars an ounce is being driven by a fresh wave of geopolitical and policy uncertainty, including new US tariff threats involving Greenland and growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence and future rate path. He argues that nearly every traditional support for gold is currently in place, and that a target which seemed ambitious late last year now looks close, with prices already near 4,700 dollars. Given the scale and persistence of the rally, he expects BNP Paribas to consider lifting its 2026 forecasts, noting that a sustained move above 5,000 dollars would likely open the door to further gains rather than mark a peak.
Silver, however, is expected to behave very differently. Wilson says last year’s powerful rally was driven by temporary physical market disruptions, including Indian policy changes, fears of Chinese export restrictions, and concerns over US tariffs, which pulled metal into the US and sharply tightened supply in Europe. With Washington now ruling out near-term critical mineral tariffs, lease rates falling, and physical conditions easing, he believes the market is vulnerable to profit-taking, especially given silver’s thin liquidity and speculative positioning. Although he still expects prices to reach 100 dollars an ounce soon, he views that level as a likely trigger for a significant correction rather than a platform for sustained gains. Source
Aakash Doshi says short-term volatility or brief periods of profit-taking do not change gold’s underlying upward trajectory, and he now puts the probability of prices reaching 5,000 dollars an ounce within six to nine months at close to 40 percent. He argues that gold and US equities hitting record levels at the same time strengthens gold’s role as a portfolio hedge rather than weakening it, as it shows investors are positioning for broader risks instead of simply reacting to growth or rate expectations. In his view, markets are increasingly pricing in tail risks tied to geopolitics, fiscal stress, and policy uncertainty, signaling potential regime shifts rather than temporary disruptions.
State Street’s analysis points to rising government and corporate debt, persistent geopolitical tensions, and unstable stock–bond correlations as structural supports for bullion, with monetary policy now a secondary factor. Doshi expects inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve’s target even if it stabilizes, and sees the Fed likely staying on hold well into 2026, a backdrop in which gold has historically performed well. Strong central bank buying, which has become less sensitive to price levels, and record ETF inflows in 2025 are providing a solid floor above 4,000 dollars an ounce, while overall global allocations to gold remain below past peaks. He believes gold is comfortable in the 4,000 to 5,000 dollar range, and that consolidation would simply allow investors to rebuild positions rather than undermine the longer-term bullish case. Source
Gold continues to gain momentum as investors increasingly turn to the metal to hedge against mounting geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 highlights that geoeconomic confrontation, interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarization, and misinformation are expected to dominate the global outlook, with roughly half of surveyed members anticipating a turbulent world over the next two years. Recent tensions, including President Trump’s threats of tariffs on multiple European nations over Greenland, have further reinforced the perception of risk, while political and business leaders prepare for discussions at the WEF’s annual Davos conference. Analysts see these developments as supportive of gold’s continued uptrend, with many projecting prices could reach or exceed 5,000 dollars an ounce in the first half of the year.
Market strategists emphasize that the gold rally is increasingly driven by structural factors rather than short-term speculation. Aakash Doshi notes that geopolitical uncertainty has become an embedded risk that strengthens gold’s role as a hedge against tail events, especially given elevated equity markets. Similarly, Linh Tran highlights that the metal’s momentum reflects confidence in gold as a core portfolio asset rather than just a reaction to tariffs or monetary policy shifts. Technical pullbacks are likely to represent temporary rebalancing rather than a reversal of the broader upward trend, indicating that gold is transitioning from a defensive hedge into a central component of long-term risk management strategies. Source
Renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed gold and silver to record levels, with spot prices climbing above 4,660 and 94 dollars an ounce, respectively, as investors flock to safe-haven assets. The latest trigger is President Trump’s renewed trade war threats against multiple European nations over Greenland, which led the European Parliament to freeze ratification of last year’s trade deal and consider retaliatory measures. Analysts say these developments are driving policy uncertainty to the forefront of market concerns, outweighing traditional growth or inflation considerations. Defensive capital has moved preemptively into gold and silver, with markets expecting elevated volatility in the short term as investors navigate the potential economic impacts of escalating trade tensions.
Despite challenges such as a strong U.S. dollar and speculation about Federal Reserve policy, safe-haven demand continues to support the rally. Analysts note that gold is benefiting from broader risk-balancing flows, while silver is outperforming due to ongoing supply constraints and its dual role as a monetary and industrial metal. Market participants expect headline-driven volatility to persist, but see these corrections as temporary adjustments within a broader bullish trend. Both metals are being treated as core hedges against tail risks and policy uncertainty, with investor demand remaining robust across physical and financial channels. Source
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
Featured Image - Source: Unsplash
