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Gold prices have rebounded to around $5,200 an ounce but remain below January’s peak near $5,600, prompting some investors to question whether the rally is losing momentum. Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP argues that, historically, the current bull market is still relatively young. At 39 months old, the cycle has delivered gains of more than 200% for gold and roughly 350% for silver, while the U.S. dollar has declined by 13%. Viewed against past bull markets, this performance fits a mid-cycle pattern, suggesting further upside potential and implying prices could approach $6,750 by the time of the U.S. midterm elections.
Shiels highlights that this cycle differs from previous ones due to deeper structural forces shaping the global economy. Elevated debt levels, persistent deficits, and what many describe as fiscal dominance have altered gold’s traditional relationship with real interest rates, reinforcing its role as a broader hedge against systemic risk. Continued central bank buying is seen as underpinning price floors, while retail participation has broadened through strong physical demand, including Costco sales, and the rise of gold-backed digital tokens that enable fractional ownership. At the same time, institutional positioning remains comparatively light. Further dollar weakness could provide an additional catalyst, though improvements in geopolitical stability, renewed dollar strength, or shifts in U.S. fiscal policy could temper the metal’s advance. Source
New U.S. trade tariffs are intensifying uncertainty across global markets, reshaping inflation expectations and dampening investor risk appetite. Julia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money, warned that tariff conflicts historically produce broad economic losses, arguing that rising import costs are likely to lift inflation while increasing the risk of supply shortages. The measures took effect at 10% after the Supreme Court limited the administration’s authority to impose many country-specific duties, forcing markets to reassess the durability of the tariff regime.
Despite the heightened tensions, the overall economic impact is described as moderate rather than disruptive. Equity markets are not seen as exiting their bullish phase, although risk sentiment has weakened and U.S. Treasuries have become more volatile while retaining their relevance. In Europe, concerns centre on what is viewed as a lack of ambition and strategic cohesion, with the region portrayed as increasingly vulnerable to external policy decisions amid the absence of a unified foreign policy and stronger strategic autonomy. Source
Gold prices are holding above the $5,100 breakout level from February, supported by renewed safe haven demand linked to trade policy uncertainty. Razan Hilal of Forex.com notes that the technical backdrop has returned to bullish territory following recent volatility, but warns that momentum indicators are flashing caution. The Relative Strength Index has climbed back to overbought levels similar to those seen just before January’s sharp selloff, creating a setup where continued upside and the risk of a structural pullback now coexist.
Sustaining gains, she argues, depends on whether buyers can push decisively through resistance between $5,200 and $5,300. A failure to maintain strength above $5,100 could expose gold to a renewed consolidation phase, initially targeting $4,800, with deeper support levels emerging at $4,600, $4,530, and potentially $4,380. Although prices briefly broke above $5,200 during the session before retreating, the broader outlook now hinges on the market’s ability to defend the breakout zone against signs of momentum exhaustion. Source
Gold and silver prices advanced by midday Wednesday, with silver outperforming and reaching a three-week high. Strength in both metals reflects improving near-term technical structures that are drawing chart-driven buying, alongside continued safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. April gold futures climbed to $5,214.50, while March silver surged to $90.43, highlighting renewed speculative interest as momentum shifts back in favour of precious metals.
Upside in gold was tempered by comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, who indicated that U.S. interest rates may remain unchanged for some time despite labour market improvements and persistent inflation risks. In the broader market backdrop, the U.S. dollar index edged lower, crude oil traded near $65.38 per barrel, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held around 4.05%. Technically, gold bulls are targeting a close above $5,400, while silver bulls are focused on a move beyond $100, with both metals maintaining increasingly supportive chart profiles. Source
Silver prices have shifted into a consolidation phase following a powerful rally earlier in the year, yet retail investor sentiment remains broadly stable. Nate Miller of Amplify ETFs said trading flows have cooled but show no signs of panic, with investors appearing comfortable with silver’s historical tendency to lag before accelerating sharply. Buying interest emerged during last month’s pullback, while the $70 region has generated increased two-way activity, leaving overall flows positive for the year.
The longer-term outlook continues to draw support from both industrial and investment drivers. Miller pointed to structural supply constraints linked to silver’s industrial demand, alongside safe-haven and de-dollarisation interest. Current price action is seen as the formation of a new base, potentially within the $70 to $80 range, allowing speculative excess to unwind. Despite a cautious near-term stance, options positioning remains tilted toward upside exposure, and further gains may develop later in the year depending on monetary policy signals and evolving Federal Reserve leadership expectations. Source
Commodity analysts at J.P. Morgan expect gold prices to climb a further 22% from current levels, projecting a move to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. The forecast is anchored in expectations of strong, sustained demand from both central banks and investors, with the bank also revising its long-term gold price outlook to $4,500 per ounce. Despite acknowledging that the rally is unlikely to be linear, strategists argue that the structural forces driving gold’s repricing remain intact, supported by reserve diversification, investor allocation shifts, and gold’s dual role as a debasement hedge and alternative to U.S. Treasuries.
Demand dynamics form the core of the bank’s pricing model. Analysts estimate that quarterly investor and central bank demand will average around 585 tonnes in 2026, with central bank purchases remaining historically elevated even if they moderate from recent peaks. Investor flows are expected to stay resilient, including projected ETF inflows and robust bar and coin demand. J.P. Morgan also sees scope for new sources of buying, particularly from Chinese insurance institutions and capital rotating from foreign U.S. assets. With mine supply described as relatively inelastic, the imbalance between demand growth and limited production response is seen as skewing risks toward a faster-than-expected advance in prices. Source
Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday as investors responded to renewed safe-haven demand driven by inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. Spot gold rose 0.5% to trade near $5,172 per ounce, while April U.S. futures edged closer to $5,190. The gains reflect a broader shift toward defensive positioning as markets reassess the potential inflationary consequences of persistent trade tariffs alongside rising instability in the Middle East. Higher import costs and energy price volatility continue to reinforce gold’s appeal as a hedge against purchasing power erosion and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Geopolitical developments added another layer of support, with tensions between the United States and Iran contributing to cautious market sentiment. While diplomatic talks remain ongoing, uncertainty surrounding future policy actions has sustained defensive flows into bullion. With limited economic data midweek, attention now turns to upcoming U.S. labour market figures and inflation indicators, particularly the Producer Price Index. These releases may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, but gold’s recent strength underscores its enduring role as a stabilising asset amid policy ambiguity, inflation sensitivity, and geopolitical risk. Source
Hong Kong is accelerating its efforts to establish itself as a leading international gold trading and storage hub, aligning with China’s broader strategy to expand its influence within global bullion markets. Joseph Chan Ho-lim said authorities are making a full push to strengthen the city’s role in gold trading, refining, clearing, and storage. Plans include expanding vault capacity beyond 2,000 metric tonnes within three years, encouraging bullion dealers to scale refining operations, and launching a fully state-owned gold clearing system designed to enhance settlement infrastructure and position Hong Kong as a credible alternative to traditional Western trading centres.
The initiative reflects deeper structural shifts within the global financial landscape, where geopolitical fragmentation and reserve diversification trends are reshaping gold flows. Closer integration between Hong Kong’s market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange aims to strengthen cross-border liquidity and pricing influence, supported by new regulatory cooperation with Shenzhen. Interest from several Asian central banks in storing gold within China-linked vault networks underscores growing demand for regional alternatives. These developments coincide with broader de-globalisation dynamics, as countries reassess reserve management strategies amid rising gold prices and evolving currency risks. Source
Société Générale argues that gold’s role on central bank balance sheets remains fundamentally distinct from government debt and other reserve assets, despite the recent slowdown in official-sector purchases. The bank expects central bank demand to strengthen through the spring, emphasising that gold functions primarily as a strategic reserve asset rather than a fiscal financing tool. Gold’s importance, the analysts contend, lies in its liquidity, independence from counterparty risk, and insulation from political pressures, making it an anchor of credibility and confidence during periods of financial or geopolitical stress. This perspective comes as global gold reserves have overtaken U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in decades, reinforcing gold’s continued relevance in an environment shaped by rising sovereign debt and periodic challenges to fiat currencies.
The report also explores the debate surrounding U.S. gold reserves and accounting practices. While the U.S. debt-to-gold ratio at market prices is broadly comparable with countries such as Japan and the U.K., the statutory valuation of gold at just over $42 per ounce produces a stark imbalance on paper. Société Générale revisits the historical precedent set by Franklin D. Roosevelt’s revaluation of gold during the Great Depression, noting its immediate balance-sheet effects and monetary consequences. A modern revaluation to around $5,000 per ounce, the bank estimates, would generate sizeable accounting gains but would cover only a modest share of federal debt. Such a move would not resolve structural fiscal pressures, though it could temporarily improve balance-sheet optics and signal deeper systemic strains. Source
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing fresh support for gold, with Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah suggesting prices could surge sharply if the confrontation between the United States and Iran intensifies. Drawing on patterns observed during previous conflicts, Dahdah estimates that safe-haven demand could drive a 15% rally, with much of the move occurring within the first two weeks of an escalation. Such a scenario, he argues, could push gold into the $5,500 to $5,800 per ounce range. Recent price action already reflects heightened uncertainty, as gold climbed above $5,000 earlier in the month amid increasingly aggressive rhetoric from President Donald Trump, although the metal has struggled to sustain levels above $5,200.
Despite the potential for a rapid spike, Dahdah cautions that conflict-driven gains are typically volatile and often temporary, tending to unwind once markets gain clarity or tensions stabilise. Natixis anticipates that any crisis would likely be limited in scope and duration, potentially lasting around a month, based on expectations that the Trump administration would pursue targeted actions rather than broad regime change. The bank contrasts this approach with earlier U.S. strategies associated with the Bush era, highlighting the likelihood of contained operations similar to past interventions rather than prolonged military engagements. Source
Türkiye is moving to create a national mining exchange aimed at improving financing options and price transparency for the sector, with a launch expected in 2026 following regulatory approval. The exchange, to be based at the Istanbul Financial Center, will provide reference prices for strategic minerals including gold, copper, boron, and rare earth elements, offering a more predictable and lower-risk market environment for producers and investors. The initiative forms part of Türkiye's 12th Development Plan and is supported by government applications through the Energy Exchange Istanbul, reflecting the country’s strategy to strengthen its mining sector as a key economic and strategic pillar.
Gold prices around $5,000 per ounce are increasingly being treated as a “new normal,” creating challenges for imports, which have grown substantially amid declining domestic production. Türkiye’s gold output fell to 28.4 tonnes in 2025, half of the sector’s target, while imports reached 126.3 tonnes, contributing to negative impacts on the current account. Despite this, overall mining exports rose, driven by overseas expansion and government agreements with countries such as Niger, Sudan, Somalia, and Uzbekistan. The shift in investor focus toward silver, alongside rising trading volumes and imports of the metal, highlights changing market dynamics, and the new mining exchange is expected to support greater transparency, financing, and sector growth. Source
Russia’s central bank sold 300,000 ounces of gold from its reserves in January, generating between $1.41 billion and $1.68 billion as prices reached record highs above $5,500 per ounce. This marked the first reduction in the country’s gold holdings since October, lowering total reserves to 74.5 million ounces. Despite the sale, the value of Russia’s gold reserves rose 23% in January to $402.7 billion, reflecting the broader rally in global bullion prices driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and strong demand from exchange-traded funds. The country remains the world’s second-largest gold producer, with annual output exceeding 300 tonnes, and continues to see robust domestic and international interest in its precious metals.
Gold exports to China have risen sharply in both volume and value, boosted by the 43% surge in spot gold prices over the past year, while domestic demand has also reached record levels, with Russian consumers purchasing 75.6 tonnes in 2024. Other precious metals have similarly benefited from higher prices, with companies like MMC Norilsk Nickel increasing exports of palladium and platinum as global prices jumped by 38% and 59% respectively in 2025. These trends underline the strong revenue potential for Russia’s mining sector despite fluctuations in central bank buying. Source
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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