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Americans were responsible for up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market trading volumes during the 12-month period ending in April 2026, according to a new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that includes regulated prediction market operators like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase.
The study, which was conducted by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, compared data from offshore platforms—or those that do not allow U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC—with platforms that have exclusively U.S. users, or exclusively non-U.S. users.
“As a share of all U.S. prediction market activity (including regulated and offshore platforms), we estimate 12.5–31.5% of U.S. prediction market volume occurs on offshore platforms,” the study says.
“Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets,” it added.
The findings highlighted Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, estimating that around $10.6-$26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing 12 months trading volume was attributable to U.S. users, even though they are technically disallowed on the platform.
The firm, which was pushed offshore by the CFTC in 2022, said it was given the “green light” to go live in the U.S. last fall. Since that time, it’s slowly rolled out its regulated Polymarket U.S. platform, but volumes were not separated by the study, due to unreliable data.
Data from a Dune dashboard notes that the regulated U.S. version of Polymarket has posted around $5 billion in notional volumes to date.
A representative for Polymarket did not immediately respond to Decrypt's request for comment.
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Though Polymarket was the largest offshore market evaluated, the study also investigated data from other unregulated markets like Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. (Disclaimer: Myriad is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan).
According to the Coalition, which is made up of regulated prediction market operators, this represents a significant problem, as offshore markets aren’t held to the same standards as those under U.S. regulations.
“Americans are using VPNs to access unregulated, offshore prediction market platforms that offer contracts on death and war,” it posted on X. “Now, we finally know how big this market is.”
“These platforms are not subject to the same customer verification requirements, anti-money laundering controls, or market integrity oversight that protect American traders,” it added.
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While the CFTC proposed new rules on Wednesday that would ban market outcomes dependent on war or assassination, it has been mired in tension and scrutiny over the last few months as states and lawmakers push back on its regulation and the growing scale of the prediction markets under its purview.
New CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has remained adamant about its jurisdiction over the platforms, saying “see you in court” in February as states began challenging the regulator’s authority.
Earlier this week, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren sought answers about the regulator’s oversight, questioning whether it could effectively regulate prediction markets while highlighting that its workforce has been cut dramatically.
