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Bitcoin’s recent volatility amid the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has left investors searching for direction.
But billionaire analyst and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the real opportunity to buy Bitcoin (BTC) is not here yet.
A long-time Bitcoin bull, Hayes recently shared his outlook during a March 10 interview with Natalie Brunell.
Related: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin to drop $75K before reaching $250K
Bitcoin has experienced sharp price swings since the war began on Feb. 28, reflecting broader uncertainty across global markets.
On the first day of the conflict, BTC dropped from roughly $67,000 to $63,476 before staging a quick recovery. By March 4, the cryptocurrency had climbed back above $70,000 and eventually reached a monthly peak of $73,394.
However, the rally proved short-lived.
For several days afterward, Bitcoin traded in a range between $65,000 and $69,000, occasionally breaking above the upper boundary before retreating again.
At press time, BTC was trading around $70,616.48, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours.
Despite his long-term bullish outlook, Hayes believes investors should be patient before aggressively buying Bitcoin.
His reasoning stems from how governments typically finance prolonged conflicts.
According to Hayes, nearly every major Middle East conflict during his lifetime has ultimately resulted in the Federal Reserve expanding liquidity to support government spending.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No,” he said. “I would wait. I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine, and that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”
Hayes argues that Bitcoin historically performs best when central banks increase liquidity, which weakens fiat currencies and drives investors toward alternative assets.
However, he cautioned that trying to precisely time this moment can be difficult.
Most investors, he noted, are watching the same headlines and may misinterpret how markets react to geopolitical developments.
According to Hayes, the ongoing conflict could still trigger deeper volatility across financial markets.
“There’s a situation where the longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities, and Bitcoin might fall a bit lower, might break $60,000, and that could be sort of a big cascading of liquidations down."
Hayes also addressed why Bitcoin has struggled to maintain stronger upward momentum over the past several months.
Rather than blaming weak demand, he pointed to what he described as a global liquidity deficit.
“Bitcoin is a liquidity alarm,” Hayes stated.
He suggested that rapid spending on AI infrastructure and data center construction by large technology firms is absorbing significant amounts of capital, reducing the amount of liquidity flowing into crypto markets.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment or financial decisions.
