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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the Ark Innovation Fund (ARKK) are both up more than 20% in August, something that has happened only four other times since Cathie Wood launched her flagship ETF in 2014.
The pairing brings back memories.
Late 2020 and early 2021 were the age of zero interest rates, stimulus checks, SPACs, meme stocks, crypto millionaires, and seemingly every company finding a way to put "innovation" in its pitch deck. ARKK became one of the defining trades of the era.
Bitcoin was right there with it.
Now that old duo is leading again. ARKK was already among Wall Street's riskiest trades outperforming earlier this month, while bitcoin accelerated after breaking out of a months-long range last week.
The combination is rare.
The only previous months in which both gained at least 20% were April 2020, November 2020, January 2023, and November 2024, according to Yahoo Finance analysis of AlphaSpace data.
What happened afterward was generally favorable, particularly for bitcoin.
Across those four episodes, bitcoin's median return was about 5% over the next month, 29% over three months, 43% over six months, and 137% over a year. Median returns for ARKK, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) were also positive at every interval.
Four observations aren't much of a forecasting system. But one of them comes with a familiar echo — November 2020.
That month kicked off the final manic stretch of ARKK's historic run. The ETF gained 24% in November, kept climbing through the holidays, and entered 2021 looking nearly unstoppable before finally peaking in February. Bitcoin gained more than 40% that November and partied even longer, topping out the following April.
August 2026 even shares some short-term similarities with that period. But stretch the comparison over three or six months, and the resemblance fades quickly.
The backdrop is different too.
Investors in late 2020 had near-zero interest rates, massive Federal Reserve bond purchases, and more federal stimulus on the way. Today's ARKK is also a different animal, with much more exposure to crypto, AI, and space companies than its pandemic-era portfolio.
So no, it isn't 2021 again.
But one of that era's signature trades is partying like it is.
