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Bitcoin’s next breakout to $80,000 is back in play.
Matt Howells-Barby, vice-president of growth at Kraken, told DL News that the path higher depends on two things: how the Middle East conflict evolves and whether US corporate earnings hold up.
“If earnings come in strong and there are signs the geopolitical situation is cooling, I’d expect Bitcoin to push hard toward $80,000,” he said. “The bid is there, but right now it needs a reason to run.”
A surge to $80,000 would mark a dramatic shift in the narrative around Bitcoin, which is still sitting 40% below its October peak of $126,000. The price plunge has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and big Bitcoin investors selling their assets in expectation of the cryptocurrency losing its value as part of a historical four-year cycle.
However, that sell-off may be slowing down. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen steady inflows, with investors piling over $2.3 billion into these funds since the beginning of March, according to DefiLlama data.
That reversal combined with continued institutional adoption has seen market watchers say the price is heading to $80,000 before the summer.
Howells-Barby’s call comes as Bitcoin’s price is floating near $75,000 after rallying 12% over the past two weeks amid broader market exuberance. The top crypto has underperformed other assets like high-flying stocks and gold.
On Thursday, the S&P 500, a global benchmark for investor sentiment, reached a new all-time high.
The indicator had fallen roughly 8% in the first weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran, sliding from the outbreak of fighting on February 28 to a low on March 30. Since then, however, markets have staged a sharp recovery, wiping out all losses recorded after the conflict began.
“The initial panic about central banks hiking again has mostly faded,” Howells-Barby said.
“Crypto's 24/7 nature means any shift in sentiment gets priced in the moment it happens, long before traditional markets can react.”
Howells-Barby is not the only one flagging the importance of US economic performance.
Economist Ed Yardeni argues that global investors have already shifted their focus away from fears of military escalation in the Middle East and back to the steady resilience of the US economy.
“The stock market is sending a clear signal: the US economy has passed another stress test,” he wrote.
Despite the popular narrative that global investors are pulling back, the data tell a different story, he stressed. The result has been record highs for US equities and a renewed wave of buying from both domestic and foreign investors.
Even hedge fund manager Michael Burry — known for his bearish take on artificial intelligence stocks — is reportedly buying the dip in software stocks after the recent AI-driven sell-off.
According to the Treasury International Capital System, or TICS, net capital inflows into US assets remain strong. Private and official foreign accounts together purchased $1.4 trillion of US assets since February 2025.
