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Key Takeaways
Ran Neuner says Bitcoin has entered a new bull market.
He outlines a cycle scenario that could take BTC to $300,000.
Dormant Satoshi-era whales have moved approximately $48 million in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bulls are looking beyond the recent rebound, with Crypto Banter founder Ran Neuner outlining a path to $300,000 as he argues a new market cycle has begun.
The forecasts coincide with roughly $48 million in transfers from dormant Satoshi-era Bitcoin addresses, as whales who haven't moved since 2010 wake up.
Speaking in an Altcoin Daily interview, Neuner said Bitcoin's recent recovery could mark the beginning of a new bull market.
"My thesis is that we're very, very much in a new bull market," he said.
Asked how far Bitcoin could climb, Neuner pointed to the scale of previous market cycles.
He said the last cycle delivered a roughly sixfold to sevenfold increase from its bottom to its peak.
Using approximately $50,000 as his reference low, he calculated that another sixfold advance would put Bitcoin at $300,000.
Neuner also argued that a return to record prices could arrive faster than expected.
"I think we're going to be back at all-time highs much sooner than people expect."
Neuner's argument begins with its rebound from its 200-week moving average, a long-term trend measure he views as an important reference point for market bottoms.
Neuner also highlighted the 77 days of trading between approximately $60,000 and $64,000 before the August breakout.
During that period, he said, BTC's Bollinger Bands had narrowed sharply, signaling unusually subdued volatility.
Neuner said the combination of low volatility and support around the 200-week average led him to favor an upward breakout.
"…I also think that Bitcoin is going to shock us. So I think, as you realized the other day, when the Bitcoin moves actually start, they're quite violent."
"Maybe we'll have a bit of a correction, but then when we start the next leg up, I think we're going to move up much quicker than people anticipate."
On Saturday, Sept. 5, 12 addresses moved 600 BTC worth approximately $48 million after more than 16 years of inactivity.
Lookonchain initially highlighted seven wallets moving 350 BTC, valued at roughly $28 million.
The coins originated from March 2010 mining rewards, when each block paid 50 Bitcoin.
Galaxy Research tracked another dormant address moving 40 BTC worth approximately $3.09 million on Sept. 3.
According to its alert, the coins had remained untouched since the address first received them on Nov. 5, 2011 — a holding period of roughly 14.8 years.
Galaxy's calculation used an estimated historical basis of around $3 per BTC, equivalent to approximately $120 for the holding. It put the percentage gain at more than 2.5 million percent.
