The leading cryptocurrency rallied to $86K on Tuesday morning before easing below $85K later in the day, as fears of a U.S. recession by year-end intensified.
BTC Marches Toward $86K Before Retreating
Bitcoin ( BTC) surged past $86K on Tuesday morning even as 46 economists polled by global consulting firm Wolters Kluwer projected a 47% probability of a U.S. recession by the end of the year, according to reporting by USA Today.
Overview of Market Metrics
However, the digital asset is now trading at $84,771.63 at the time of reporting, marking a 0.68% gain in the past 24 hours and a 9.04% increase over the past week. BTC traded within a tight range of $83,743.33 to $86,429.35 in the last day, reflecting a modest but positive market trajectory. Trading volume fell by 15.87% to $29.73 billion over the same period.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is currently sitting at $1.69 trillion, mirroring its 24-hour price gain. BTC dominance also rose slightly to 63.85%, a 0.26% increase, indicating that bitcoin has been outperforming altcoins in recent sessions.
Data from Coinglass shows a relatively calm derivatives market, with total liquidations at just $659,180. Short sellers took a larger hit, accounting for $482,570 of those losses, while long liquidations remained minimal at $176,610. Futures open interest dipped 3.22% to $54.91 billion, suggesting some cautious positioning by traders despite bitcoin’s strong weekly performance.
Economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer in February put the chances of a recession at 25%. That projection has almost doubled to 47%, as per USA Today. Experts now say the U.S. economy “will nearly stall or slip into recession over Trump’s tariffs,” despite the recently announced 90-day pause.
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has an even more dire prediction: “something worse” than a mere recession could be on the horizon if President Donald Trump and his administration mismanage the current tariff situation.
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to flounder at 3-year lows, whereas bitcoin has been gradually inching upward as Trump’s tariff policies continue to erode confidence in U.S. assets. The outcome of the president’s trade strategy may end up firmly establishing the cryptocurrency as a legitimate safe haven instead of a risk asset.
“Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said during a Sunday NBC interview. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
