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Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized equities, while Gemini has secured regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry coalition. Changpeng Zhao is targeting 220 million users through BNB Chain. The war among giants for the throne of the $15 billion prediction market has officially begun.
Coinbase reportedly plans to officially announce prediction markets and tokenized equity services at a showcase on December 17. The tokenized stocks will be launched in-house, not through partners.
Coinbase executives have previously expressed interest in entering these businesses but had not made official announcements. However, expectations have been building as screenshots hinting at related functionality have circulated on social network X in recent weeks. A Coinbase spokesperson declined to comment on specific plans, stating only: "Tune in to the livestream on Dec. 17 to find out what new products Coinbase is shipping."
This move is part of Coinbase's ongoing "everything app" strategy, designed to provide traders with access to a broad range of assets and markets while keeping pace with rivals who are diversifying their offerings. Robinhood launched Kalshi's prediction market products earlier this year, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized US stocks and ETFs outside the United States.
Trading in tokenized equities is growing rapidly. According to rwa.xyz, monthly transfer volume increased 32% over the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a national alliance of prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports gaming platform Underdog joined as founding members.
Matt David, executive board member of CPM, emphasized: "The US is the biggest frontier for prediction markets, and the momentum we're seeing makes a unified industry voice not just important, but necessary."
The coalition will focus on strengthening the federal framework for prediction markets, establishing nationwide integrity standards to curb insider trading, and pushing back against state-level regulatory overreach.
Sara Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi and an executive member of the coalition, stated: "We spent years working with the CFTC because prediction markets must operate with strong federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure these markets remain transparent and corruption-free." The coalition said more companies are in talks to join.
Winklevoss twins-founded exchange, Gemini, has also entered the prediction market battlefield. Gemini Space Station Inc. received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives exchange.
The approval allows Gemini to offer event contract trading services to existing US customers through its website and mobile app. In regulatory filings related to its IPO, Gemini had included prediction markets on "economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts" among its list of products of interest.
Gemini stated it "will explore expanding its derivatives offering for US customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts." Following the approval announcement, Gemini shares surged as much as 28% in extended trading.
The approval is among the latest agency actions under Acting Chairman Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as a champion of the digital assets industry and has taken numerous steps to advance crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham also announced that Tyler Winklevoss would participate in the agency's CEO Innovation Council, which will include Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his prediction market territory. On December 4, CZ posted on X about a new prediction market launching on BNB Chain. A key feature of the platform is that user funds generate yield while awaiting outcomes. The platform is backed by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in more than 300 projects globally.
One day earlier, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, launched its Predictions feature. Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad joined as the first integration partner, enabling users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends within the app. Trust Wallet's user base stands at 220 million.
BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market provider backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured a multi-million dollar investment at Binance Blockchain Week. They completed a $5 million seed funding round in Q1 2025, led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of former President Donald Trump, is also jumping into the prediction market business. The company plans to launch "Truth Predict" on its Truth Social network, allowing users to bet on events ranging from political elections to changes in the inflation rate.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to process bets and will offer wagers on commodity prices and events across all major sports leagues. Initial testing will begin "in the near future," followed by a full US launch and eventual global expansion.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and a former Republican congressman, stated: "For too long, global elites have closely controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we're democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd."
Prediction markets have exploded since a federal court dismissed the prohibition on election betting last year. Weekly notional trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi has surpassed the peak set during last year's US presidential election, reaching new records.
Investor interest is soaring. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled following its recent funding round, reaching $11 billion. Polymarket is reportedly seeking to raise funds at a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring ways to enter this market. Monthly transfer volume for tokenized equities increased 32% over the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against New York's gaming commission, alleging that the state agency is overstepping its authority by attempting to regulate sports betting operations that fall exclusively under federal jurisdiction. Sports betting remains illegal in nearly a dozen US states, and lawsuits over the legality of prediction markets are mounting.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and the newly formed industry coalition — the game of giants for the $15 billion throne has only just begun.
