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Rosenblatt Securities lowered price targets and financial estimates for several bitcoin mining companies Friday, citing a sharp decline in mining profitability that highlights the growing importance ofAI and high-performance computing (HPC) revenue.
The investment firm reiterated buy ratings for Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR), TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF), and Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT), favoring companies that are actively diversifying into AI and computing power. Analyst Chris Brendler noted that while pure-play Bitcoin mining remains under pressure due to “stubbornly high network competition,” the impact is limited for miners securing lucrative contracts for power capacity.
“The big takeaway from our recent Miner-HPC conference was the insatiable demand for power and related positive impact on deal economics,” Brendler wrote in the note to clients. “As such, although pure play miners will remain under pressure, the impact is limited for HPC plays.”
The report highlighted a difficult environment for the broader mining sector, with Bitcoin prices dropping roughly 30% since early October highs. Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s hashprice (a metric for bitcoin mining revenue) has fallen 26% over the same period to near all-time lows of $38/PH/day. Rosenblatt lowered its year-end 2026 Bitcoin price forecast to $114,000 from $133,000, further compressing revenue expectations for the group.
Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) saw its price target cut to $15 from previous levels due to its high exposure to bitcoin mining. The firm reduced its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate for Marathon to $99 million, down from $281 million, noting that the company’s cost structure makes it highly sensitive to changes in Bitcoin prices.
Rosenblatt also lowered its price target for Cipher Mining to $25 from $33, while cutting TeraWulf’s target to $20. Despite the reductions, the analyst maintained a “Top Pick” designation for TeraWulf, pointing to its ability to transition power capacity to higher-margin AI tenants.
Hive Digital (NASDAQ: HIVE) had its price target reduced to $6.50 from $10. The report noted that while Hive is expanding its own HPC business, its financial results remain heavily influenced by its massive mining expansion in Paraguay.
The report also identified a shift in industry transparency as profitability wanes. Cipher Mining and Marathon Digital recently stopped publishing monthly mining production reports, joining Hut 8 and TeraWulf in reducing disclosures. Hive Digital is the only company in the analyst’s coverage universe to continue releasing monthly bitcoin mining operational updates.
Network data shows some miners are already capitulating to the lower prices. Bitcoin’s global hashrate is down 7% since peaking in mid-October, though it remains up 34% year-to-date. Rosenblatt expects hashrate growth to moderate until Bitcoin prices rebound, as older mining machines become unprofitable to operate.
