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Crypto regulation in the U.S. has a reputation for moving slowly, then all at once.
According to Kevin O'Leary, we may be closer to that “all at once” moment than markets realize.
In a recent conversation with CoinDesk, the Shark Tank-famed investor and outspoken crypto advocate offered a surprisingly specific estimate for when meaningful crypto legislation could finally land.
Related: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary sends strong message on regulations
On the surface, the reasons for delay are familiar. Lawmakers remain divided over key clauses, industry players are pushing back on certain provisions, and bipartisan consensus has been uneven.
But the biggest obstacle is political timing.
The U.S. is heading into midterm elections in November 2026, making this a sensitive window for lawmakers. Legislative focus has already shifted toward higher-profile priorities, including housing affordability, a central plank of Donald Trump’s domestic agenda.
Crypto, unintentionally, slipped down the list. Even Senate Agriculture Committee chair John Boozman admitted the delay.
And what's worse, the crypto draft has been pushed once again due to a winter storm that disrupted Washington operations.
For an industry that has waited years for clarity, the delays are frustrating.
Despite the noise, O’Leary is unusually confident the bill won’t be derailed by election politics.
His reasoning is simple: most of the real work isn’t being done by politicians.
“These bills are written by staffers,” he said, noting that teams on both sides of the aisle are spending the bulk of their time refining the language.
According to O’Leary, staff-level negotiations remain active, pragmatic and genuinely bipartisan.
“You can get a meeting with staffers both red and blue,” he said. “They listen to everybody. They’re trying to create a law that works for both sides.”
That, in his view, is why the process keeps moving — even when headlines suggest otherwise.
If he’s right about the timing, the wait may soon be over, quietly, and faster than expected.
“I’ll give you my estimate — May 15th,” O’Leary said.
Still, O’Leary isn’t blind to the sticking points. He has been openly critical of a clause in the current draft that would ban yield on stablecoin accounts, a move he says unfairly advantages traditional banks.
“That is an unlevel playing field,” O’Leary said, arguing that the restriction is one reason Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) pulled back its support earlier this month.
Stablecoin issuers like Circle (NYSE: CRCL) and exchanges that partner with them want flexibility to offer rewards, especially given the revenue potential. Coinbase alone reported hundreds of millions in stablecoin-related revenue last year.
O’Leary believes that the clause will be fixed.
When it is, the floodgates open.
According to him, regulation won’t just legitimize Bitcoin and Ether. It will unlock large-scale institutional participation, pushing capital far beyond today’s cautious allocations.
Related: Analyst revamps Coinbase rating as Clarity Act hearing nears
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 26, 2026, where it first appeared in the Policy section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
