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February has been a difficult month for Bitcoin (BTC).
In the past 30 days, it has dropped by 29.9%. At press time, it was trading at $65,189.77, well below its October 2025 peak of $124,000.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at just 5 as of Feb. 13, signaling “Extreme Fear.”
But investment bank Standard Chartered says crypto markets may not be done correcting just yet, according to CoinDesk.
The firm has lowered its short-term and full-year price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies.
Related: Standard Chartered apologises on bullish Bitcoin prediction
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, said in a research note that ETF dynamics are a key driver of the ongoing weakness.
According to Kendrick, ETF holders, many of whom bought at higher levels, are more likely to reduce exposure than “buy the dip.”
Holdings of Bitcoin ETFs have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak. The average ETF purchase price sits around $90,000, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of roughly 25%.
That positioning creates what Kendrick sees as additional downside risk if redemptions accelerate.
The crypto market has already weakened sharply in early 2026. Bitcoin has dropped almost 23% since the start of the year, and the total market capitalization has contracted significantly amid large liquidations and heightened volatility.
Crypto is also moving in closer correlation with equity markets as risk appetite fades.
Concerns over global growth and uncertainty around the interest-rate outlook have pushed capital toward traditional safe havens like gold.
Markets are not expecting rate cuts before Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Federal Reserve chair in mid-June, limiting near-term support for risk assets.
At the same time, stalled regulatory clarity in the United States and liquidity strains at certain institutions have weighed on confidence and trading volumes.
Despite the bearish near-term outlook, Standard Chartered does not view the current drawdown as catastrophic.
At its worst in early February, Bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 high, with roughly half of the circulating supply still in profit. That decline is sharp, but less severe than previous cycles.
Crucially, this downturn has not been accompanied by the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike 2022’s failures of Terra/Luna and FTX.
Kendrick argues this signals a maturing asset class with stronger structural underpinnings.
Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin to fall toward $50,000 in the coming months, with Ether potentially bottoming near $1,400.
Kendrick has also reduced his year-end 2026 targets from $150,000 to $100,000 for Bitcoin, $4,000 for Ether (ETH) from $7,500, and $135 from $250 for Solana (SOL).
The bank left its long-term targets unchanged, maintaining end-2030 projections of $500,000 for Bitcoin and $40,000 for Ether.
