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Key Takeaways
Binance's average XRP reserves have fallen from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion tokens since November 2025, according to analyst Darkfrost.
Wintermute identified the Federal Reserve's Sept. 15–16 meeting as a major risk event after rate-hike odds climbed to 61.9%.
XRP enters September near $1.35 after gaining almost 30% in August.
XRP's price is entering September caught between improving supply dynamics and a potentially disruptive shift in US monetary policy.
The token ended August with a gain of nearly 30%, while Binance's XRP reserves fell to their lowest monthly average since February 2024.
At the same time, Wintermute has warned that the Federal Reserve's Sept. 15–16 policy meeting could determine the next direction for risk assets.
Darkfrost said the monthly average of XRP held on Binance had declined to approximately 2.6 billion tokens, a level last recorded in February 2024.
Binance held an average of around 3.1 billion XRP in November 2025, when the broader crypto market was entering a bearish period.
That means the exchange's reserves have declined by approximately 500 million XRP in less than a year, even as the token's price dropped from a record $3.66 to around $1.35.
XRP is therefore still trading approximately 63% below its all-time high despite its strong August recovery.
Declining exchange reserves are often interpreted as a sign that investors are withdrawing assets into private wallets.
Fewer tokens held on trading platforms can, in theory, reduce immediate selling pressure.
However, Darkfrost outlined several possible explanations for the decline.
Long-term accumulation may account for part of the outflow, but the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November and December 2025 may also have increased institutional demand.
Binance could also be moving tokens between wallets as part of its routine liquidity.
"Given the levels currently reached, there is little doubt that some investors are accumulating XRP," Darkfrost wrote.
Adding: "This sends a relatively positive signal for XRP, although this dynamic is more relevant from a long-term perspective…"
While falling exchange reserves provide a potentially bullish on-chain signal, Wintermute said upcoming policy could dominate crypto markets during the first half of September.
According to the trading firm, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 61.9%.
The firm said the resulting price action across bonds, commodities and equities indicated that investors were taking Warsh's inflation stance seriously.
Crypto markets absorbed the comments relatively well.
Bitcoin finished the week almost unchanged after briefly moving above $81,000, while altcoins collectively gained 0.61%.
Wintermute identified the Sept. 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the main catalyst for crypto markets.
The Sept. 4 payroll report could also significantly alter rate expectations before policymakers meet.
A rate increase could lift yields and strengthen the dollar, reducing investor appetite for volatile assets such as XRP.
Institutional flows provided a more positive signal for XRP's price.
Wintermute said XRP ETFs attracted $110 million during the week, setting a new 2026 inflow record.
Solana products also reached a yearly high with $154 million of inflows.
Wintermute said two successive weeks of institutional inflows suggested that the recent crypto rebound was supported by more than short covering.
Altcoins also outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum during the week, potentially indicating that demand was spreading beyond the largest assets.
However, the firm cautioned that a single week was not enough to confirm a lasting expansion of growth.
XRP's price was trading near $1.35 at the time of writing after ending August almost 30% higher.
The token recently rallied 71.8% from $0.988 to $1.69.
Its subsequent correction has returned XRP to the important $1.35–$1.38 demand area.
Holding that zone would keep the recent recovery intact and leave $1.86 as the principal resistance level.
A break above $1.86 could strengthen the case for another move toward $2.
However, a sustained loss of the $1.35 region would undermine the recent breakout and suggest that August's rally had failed to establish a durable price floor.
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The post XRP Price Faces Crucial September Test as Wintermute Flags Fed Risk and Binance Reserves Fall appeared first on ccn.com.
